December 6, 2011

Here's a clever trick

From the NYT, an article that naively recounts a clever trick to play anytime you want to discredit the public. But you have to have deep pockets because polling agencies don't like to do this:
Perceptions of the impact of migration in some countries are so distorted that their citizens estimate that there are as many as three times the number of immigrants living there than is actually the case, a global migration body says in a report being released on Tuesday. 
In “World Migration Report for 2011,” the International Organization for Migration, a 132-member intergovernmental body based in Geneva, warns that misinformation about migration fans “harmful stereotypes, discrimination and xenophobia.”  ...

Your taxpayer dollars at work! This International Organization for Migration spent $1.4 billion dollars in 2010.
People in destination countries tended to significantly overstate the size of the migrant population, the organization said, based on polling from an annual survey, “Trans-Atlantic Trends.” 
The actual percentage of migrants in Italy in 2010 was around 7 percent, the report said, “yet polls showed that the population perceived this percentage to be around a staggering 25 percent.” 
Some surveys in the United States showed that the public believed that immigrants made up 39 percent of the population in 2010. That estimate, the report said, was “a far cry” from the actual 14 percent.

What a bunch of idiots immigration skeptics are!

Okay, seriously, this is a sure-fire ploy because on the rare occasions when public opinion polls ask questions with objective answers, the public always overestimates the share of the population comprised by the group being asked about. For example, a 2011 Gallup Poll found that the mean estimate of the homosexual share of the population was 24.6 percent. Or, as I wrote
A 2001 Gallup survey, right after the release of 2000 Census results, found that the average American estimated that 33% of the population was black and 29% were Hispanic. That adds up the two main minorities accounting for 62%, or a majority of the population, but who's counting? Not most people.
In that 2001 survey, nonwhites estimated that 40% of the population was black and 35% was Hispanic (adding up to 75%). In contrast, people claiming postgraduate degrees estimated that 25% were black and 24% Hispanic (only about double the Census numbers), which proves the value of advanced education.

Of course, another aspect of this trick that the IOM is doing is to not count children of immigrants as immigrants.

The spokesman for the 132-country governmental organization with a $1.4 billion annual budget goes on:
Meanwhile, foreign workers in Europe suffered higher unemployment in 2010 than their counterparts in the citizenry. While Spaniards suffered 18.1 percent unemployment in 2010, the rate for foreigners in Spain was 30.2 percent, the organization’s data show. In Germany, migrants were nearly twice as likely as locals to be jobless (12.4 percent versus 6.5 percent) during the summer of 2010. Europe, for its part, was the generator of new outflows, with net emigration from Ireland reaching 60,000 people at the end of 2010, after 7,800 in 2009.



Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, foreign workers in Europe suffered higher unemployment in 2010 than their counterparts in the citizenry.

Oh, the humanity!

Captain Jack Aubrey said...

"People in destination countries tended to significantly overstate the size of the migrant population"

Look at the upside to this: this stat suggests that we benefit from the blessings of diversity far more quickly than our imperial overlords seem to think. So the elite think we need classrooms to be 13% black before we can bask in the glories of their cultural and intellectual contributions? Then 4% will be fine, thank you.

AMac said...

Meanwhile, citizens in Europe suffered higher unemployment in 2010 due to the influx of foreign workers. Spaniards suffered 18.1 percent unemployment in 2010, a high rate pushed up by the employment of 69.8 percent of eligible foreigners in Spain, the organization’s data show. In Germany, 6.5 percent of locals were jobless, a rate that would be lower were it not for the jobs taken by 87.6 percent of the work-seeking foreigners during the summer of 2010.

Let's! said...

I love how the LSM fabricates its own news stories by goading everyone into thinking that China is the world's largest economy or that we're a majority-minority nation...and then mocking us when we dutifully repeat back the conclusions they've been manipulating us into reaching for the last 20 years.

Whiskey said...

Ireland, which has been kicked around since Laudabiliter, has seen Somali "immigrants" kicking the inhabitants around with impunity (as Black Muslims its a two-fer). Now, what are Somalis doing in Ireland you ask?

Well, the Government took them there. Because the EU asked and because the elites want them. It is universal. The Israeli elites want Africans there too, just like the Irish elites, no matter what the majority want. The elites have just too much money, power, and hatred for their people.

Mark said...

And obviously, immigrants tend to concentrate in certain (urban) areas, so that if you see them at all, they'll be in higher proportion than the national average.

David Davenport said...

Golly, Prof. Instapundit sure has thin skin:

OKAY, SO SOMEBODY NAMED WILLIAM DAVID DAVENPORT sent me an email just now accusing me of scrubbing a link to my Lower Education Bubble piece and of hypocrisy about airbrushing. But I haven’t scrubbed any links to that piece, which is several months old. Nor am I, as he suggests, ashamed of it. Why would I be, as it’s proven more correct all the time?

I emailed him back, but his email address bounced, and the link he provided to a purported discussion over at Steve Sailer’s place ...
Hmm, Instapundit is familiar with Steve sailer's place? ... didn’t work, so I have no idea what this is supposed to be about.

Posted at 2:02 pm by Glenn Reynolds

I just ( Dec. 6 ) sent Instapundit the following email. I don't why his purported earlier attempt to reply "bounced." It should not have bounced. I sent the email via Windows livemail/hotmail.

Replying to that email should have been foolproof. One doesn't have to type the intended receiver's email address to reply.

Instascrubbing of WashExaminer post‏
2 messages
0 unread
Show all

10:10 PM
Reply ▼
William David Davenport
To, William David Davenport
Mr. Reynolds:

Here I am.

This past Sunday morning had a link to your "Lower Education Bubble" piece in WashExaminer.

Sunday night, I couldn't find the link. I can't find the link now, either. Why don't you post that link again?


David Davenport

Anonymous said...

It's noteworthy that the IOM connects overestimation of immigration to "harmful stereotypes," etc. They could easily have claimed that it's a sign of how happy people are with the positive effects of diversity. But maybe the IOM takes for granted that immigration, even though we're constantly reminded that it's A Good Thing, is very unpopular.

Puppy world said...

Americans think 25% of the populace are gay. Leftists seem to love that.

Anonymous said...

Generally, public perceptions of being 'swamped' by immigrants are correct - and their instincts are right.

Take London, England for example.Recent statistics tell us that in 'inner London' (the urban core of that city),more than 70% of schoolchildren are non-whites.Inevitavly this will mean that in a few generations' time, London will be overwhelmingly non-white, to the tune of 90% + of the population.
Yet non-whites were virtually unknown there as recently as 1950.During the intervening period, those who complained about immigration were regularly silenced with the admonition that 'immigrants are "only" 1 or 2 or 5% or whatever of the population, shut up and stop exaggerrating'.
The alarmists are always proved right, and those who minimize immigrant numbers are always liars concealing the truth and pushing agendas.

Anonymous said...

Here in Germany (as in most European countries), it is almost impossible for the average citizen to get a clear picture of how many people with non-European backgrounds are living in this country.

All kinds of confusing and contradictory figures are published in the media.

"People with an immigrant background" includes whites, "Muslims," excludes all sorts of Third World immigrants, "immigrants" excludes people born here, etc. etc.

If the government and the media would provide clear information to the citizenry, then pulls would probably show that the citizenry was well-informed.

Baloo said...

Israeli elites want African immigrants? I'd love to see a link about that.

Marlowe said...

There seems to be a general over-estimation tendency on the part of most people - for example, the public when asked to state the inflation rate or the unemployment rate also place either one much higher than the true value. This has held firm as a behaviour over decades.

hbd chick said...

"The actual percentage of migrants in Italy in 2010 was around 7 percent, the report said, 'yet polls showed that the population perceived this percentage to be around a staggering 25 percent.'"

two things:

- if the polls were done only in urban areas, then such figures could very well be correct;

- tv distorts peoples' perceptions. on every tv show there is one black, one hispanic and one gay person. people start to believe that's true when that's what they see all the time.