JayMan's blog is one of the most interesting of HBD blogs to emerge over the last year. Here's a posting on the somewhat tenuous but intriguing evidence that little Denmark has had some success at both driving down Muslim immigrant fertility and maintaining educated white women's fertility not too far below replacement.
On NPR, an interviewer was congratulating some European Eunion muckety-muck on his Nobel Peace Prize and they got to exulting how this was a stick in the eye for all those horrid European immigration restrictionist parties, specifically namechecking the Danish People's Party, which had been part of the ruling coalition in Denmark for a decade, and helped push through some sensible reforms to limit things like visa fraud via arranged cousin marriages. The left won a recent election there finally, after promising not to undo immigration restriction reforms, but appears to have started to cheat on that. Thank God the Nobel Peace Prize endorses that kind of deviousness, otherwise Denmark would invade Germany to get Schleswig-Holstein back, or something.
At present, the Northern model seems to be working slightly better than the Mediterranean model at keeping up native fertility. It's not just lots of paid maternal leave and the like, but also social expectations that women can walk around in public without being all made-up. In contrast, in Italy, modern women are expected to have it all: a job, be a good cook, and look like Monica Belluci all the time. Not surprisingly, having kids turns out to be something that drops toward the bottom of the priority list. Or an Italian woman has one son and devotes her life to keeping him fed deliciously and his clothes spotless.
Posts
61 comments:
Off topic but it's too exciting and it's stuff white people like
http://www.redbullstratos.com/m/the-team/felix-baumgartner/
Danes are cool.
--Great cookies (need a beverage to go with them, though, as they tend to be a little dry)
--Intriguing characters like Claus von Bulow and Karen Blixen
--Good movies like "Terribly Happy"
--Haven't screwed up their country like the Swedes and Norwegians
(I've been hanging out on the gun forum a lot lately and I think my world view has become correspondingly simplified, not to mention simplistic.)
"Here's a posting on the somewhat tenuous but intriguing evidence that little Denmark has had some success at... maintaining educated white women's fertility not too far below replacement."
Wow, there's a noteworthy accomplishment.
I don't know anything about Scandinavia, but I always thought that the difference between Italy's fertility rate and Ireland's was that Irish husbands' vice tends to be drink rather than adultery. So if an Irish woman has three kids in six years and takes a year and a half after the birth of her third to get her figure back she is less likely to be dealing with an unfaithful husband.
Italian women, on the other hand, know that unless they are always at the top of their game they are likely to get cheated on. Italian traditionally cheat on their wives when they're pregnant. All the more reason to reduce pregnancy as much as possible.
Gloria
But Monica Belluci had 2 children. However, I think she lives in France. Maybe the decadence of Catholicism is to blame for Italy's current low fertility? That, and the lack of jobs for young people.
Denmark is not nicer because of its laws.
Denmark is nicer because it is full of Danes.
The rest of the world needs to give up the fantasy of becoming like Scandinavia.
Interesting snapshot of Muslim demographics in the UK here, e.g. they're more likely to be unemployed or in ill health than people of any other religion, and they've increased by 400 000 in the seven years from 2001 to 2008.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/london-wikileaks/8304838/UK-MUSLIM-DEMOGRAPHICS-C-RE8-02527.html
Encouraging news. Also, Denmark's policies showed real economic benefits too.
"Denmark has some of the tightest immigration regulations in the EU and the report, based on the findings from five ministries, found they had saved the tax payer millions of pounds that would have been spent on social assistance and housing for immigrants from outside the EU.
"Now that we can see that it does matter who comes into the country, I have no scruples in further restricting those who one can suspect will be a burden on Denmark," Soren Pind, the centre-right liberal integration minister, told the newspaper Jyllands-Posten.
He added that he was willing to let more people who could make a positive contribution to the economy into Denmark.
The report found immigrants from non-western countries and their decedents cost the country £1.8 billion a year while those from western countries contributed to the economy."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/8492822/Denmarks-immigration-laws-save-country-6-billion.html
There was an incident in New York City in the '90s where a Danish couple got arrested for leaving their baby in a stroller outside a restaurant while they were having dinner (while keeping an eye on the baby through the window, I think). The couple said this was a common practice back home. It seems like a pleasant one if you live in a high-trust society.
I would guess that being able to go out to dinner without a baby cramping your style has a positive effect on fertility.
In contrast, in Italy, modern women are expected to have it all: a job, be a good cook, and look like Monica Belluci all the time.
Really?
I always thought that the number one expectation of Italian women is to love their husbands and be nice to them. Of course, to American fembitches, that is the ultimate form of rape.
The report found immigrants from non-western countries and their decedents cost the country £1.8 billion a year while those from western countries contributed to the economy.
Would Japanese immigrants (that is, emigrants from Japan to Denmark) be consider western or non-western?
"Truth said...
"Here's a posting on the somewhat tenuous but intriguing evidence that little Denmark has had some success at... maintaining educated white women's fertility not too far below replacement."
Wow, there's a noteworthy accomplishment."
-Actually, you could learn something from the article. It basically shoots down your view that reducing welfare won't reduce the numbers of offspring among the poor.
Is government funded IVF treatment a factor?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/3352531/Britain-urged-to-follow-Danish-example-on-IVF.html
Speaking of immigration, an interesting proposal from Australia:
"AFRICAN immigrants should be given an ''L-plate'' year in which they are not charged with certain breaches of Australian law, a Melbourne mayoral candidate has suggested.
Speaking at a Melbourne University forum last week, former Victorian of the Year Berhan Ahmed said members of the African community should be granted leniency by police until they acclimatised to Australian laws."
What on earth does a prosperous and modern country like Denmark need muslim immigrants for? What can Somalis etc, possibly 'contribute" to Demark or any other western country (except to leave it)?
Mr. X what do you mean by the decadence of Catholicism?
Gloria
There was an incident in New York City in the '90s where a Danish couple got arrested for leaving their baby in a stroller outside a restaurant while they were having dinner (while keeping an eye on the baby through the window, I think). The couple said this was a common practice back home. It seems like a pleasant one if you live in a high-trust society.
You don't need to live in a "high-trust society" to avoid having your baby snatched in plain sight. That's not really a trust issue.
"There was an incident in New York City in the '90s where a Danish couple got arrested for leaving their baby in a stroller outside a restaurant while they were having dinner (while keeping an eye on the baby through the window, I think). "
I remember that incident, it was not only outside, but in the middle of winter. The NY media really played it up as a funny cultural difference between the NY and Copenhagen.
The wikipedia page on total fertility rate by country list 3 estimates for Danish fertility, the highest being 1.87, which is lower than the fertility rates mentioned in the post for any type of women in Denmark.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_fertility_rate
I second Steve's enthusiasm about the JayMan blog. I read it regularly and like it a lot.
beta plus nailed it. Danes are different, so their country is successful because there's lots of Danes there.
But ultimately the Southern European model both Catholic and Orthodox models of society, and the Northern European ones, are not sustainable. The Southern model leads to catastrophic demographic decline, likely because the men are not sexy. Women don't need/want providers if the State can provide, see Federline, Kevin; and Van Der Sloot, Joran, both fathers now. Or heck, Johnson, Levi, with two kids (out of wedlock) at age 22.
The problem in Southern Europe is sexy men. Not enough of them. Southern European women have higher standards of macho sexiness, the asshole factor has to be much, much stronger with their men in order for them to have kids -- and women don't care much about infidelity vs. sexiness. How many random European women would have George Clooney's baby with no possibility of support or caring? Around 80% I'd reckon.
In Northern Europe, IVF (itself a function of aging women seeking a kid at age 40+) is a band-aid at best. And yes, the Left is roaring back because women in Denmark think its "racist" to keep Muslims out, who could be profitably employed as status-whoring objects, their kids being "educated" by Nice White Ladies (Tm Steve Sailer) and the like.
@ DaveinHackensack,
That is would appear to vindicate Auster's first law of majority minority relations in a liberal society? :)
Also, it shows Professor Andrew Fraser's predictions about african immigration to Australia were accurate.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/counterpoint/freedom-of-speech/3367108#transcript
But ultimately the Southern European model both Catholic and Orthodox models of society
You forgot Jewish and Muslim.
Poster "whiskey" has some strong fantasies. He forgets about the stereotype of the "Latin lover," and that most women in the world consider Italian, Spanish, French men the epitome of sexy. He probably forgets this because of certain habits regarding genres of pornography he prefers, which has brainwashed him into thinking that West Afreakan men are sexy. But they are present in southern Europe, and the wimmins aren't flocking to breed with them. By contrast, American women bear the children of Hispanic men at I think more than twice the rate that of white women who bear the kids of black men. If you want to have sexual inadequacy complex, Whiskey, you really should choose Latin, not black men. Women's wombs speak the truth here.
In Brazil you find sexier men than anywhere else, but their birth rate has tanked as well. There's something going on in Catholic "educated" countries that leads to this. And it's not the state providing, because in Brazil and Argentina, the state can't really do that very well at all.
If women craved jerks above all else, they'd be all over Whiskey. If unpleasant behavior was all there was to it, there wouldn't be any virgins. Anyone can behave unpleasantly. It's the easiest thing in the world. Much easier than having a good job, the respect of one's peers and a well-rounded personality.
"-Actually, you could learn something from the article. It basically shoots down your view that reducing welfare won't reduce the numbers of offspring among the poor."
Is that my argument?
"How many random European women would have George Clooney's baby with no possibility of support or caring? Around 80% I'd reckon."
Dude, you seriously need to give up your luxury flat in mommy's basement, and engage the outside world for the first time.
"In Brazil you find sexier men than anywhere else, but their birth rate has tanked as well. There's something going on in Catholic "educated" countries that leads to this."
It's not complicated. In Catholic countries like Italy and Brazil you have women getting educated and going into the workplace, but men who expect their wives to cater to them and be a mommy as well as a lover to them. As a result, women end up going on "baby strike" rather than have to deal with working and doing everything on the domestic front as well.
The European countries that actually have decent birthrates are the Scandinavian social democracies which have more egalitarian gender relations as well as state support for child rearing. France with its explicit pronatalist policies is also an outlier, and has the highest birthrate in the EU as a result.
"social expectations that [Danish] women can walk around in public without being all made-up. In contrast, in Italy, modern women are expected to ... look like Monica Belluci all the time."
Viva Italia!
"Viva Italia!"
Yes, Milan in 1980 struck me as home to, on average, the most beautiful women in the world, and I haven't seen much reason to change my mind since then. And I'm saying that as a loyal Angeleno, where beauty contest winners have been getting off the bus since 1915.
I suspect that in the higher birth rate Northern European countries it is less shameful to be a baby mama than in the lower birth rate Southern European or East Asian countries.
A lot of points raised there, Steve.
Firstly, as you said about Israel, Denmark is a good example of how a high IQ people run their affairs, but alas, unlike israelis, Danes lack a bit of natural guile and herefore were conned into an immigration disaster before finally realising its idiocy when the idiocy was slap, bang in your face. - Most of the naive fools who run the EU are still in the pre idiocy discovery phase, when if ever reality mugs them is a moot point.
Italy came late to the immigration game, but their leftists seem even dumber and more rabid on the issue than north European leftists (if that's possible), hence the assinine multiple 'amnesties'.
I think that this mythological 'Italian love of family and children' has been greatly exaggerrated by people who don't really know Italians and their character, also there's a lot of blather about the 'coldness' of north Europeans by people who don't really know them.
A good proxy for a nation's love of children is a nation's respect for animals.
Who do you think treats animals better, Danes or Italians?
Southern European men aren't sexy? Whiskey, come on bro.....
Denmark certainly has better immigration policies than Sweden. But all Scandinavian countries have sub-replacement fertility among the indigenous population. So do all European countries. There seems little sign of this changing in the short to medium term, either.
Italy tends to get quite a few illegal immigrants and guest workers, but getting a green card is not neccessarily easy.
Southern Europeans - less babies, but also less tolerance for immigration.
Milan, huh Steve? Becoming the runway fashion capital of the world in the late 70s may have skewed the looks of the female population, don't you think?
Or are you being puckish?
Truth:"Wow, there's a noteworthy accomplishment."
absolutely. The struggle against barbarism is largely a matter of getting educated White women to have more kids.
"Would Japanese immigrants (that is, emigrants from Japan to Denmark) be consider western or non-western?"
Assuming that this is not a joke, they would be considered non-Western.Japan is not a Western country.
There was an incident in New York City in the '90s where a Danish couple
Not quite:
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/
article/0,28804,1915352_1915354_1915325,00.html
A Danish tourist and a Brooklyn man.......The child's mother, Annette Sorensen, 32, was charged with endangering the welfare of a child, and her daughter was placed in foster care for four days. The child's father, Exavier Wardlaw, 51, was charged with endangering the welfare of a child and disorderly conduct.
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/23/nyregion/court-ruling-favors-2-who-left-baby-outside.html?ref=annettesorensen
I believe the technical term for the "Brooklyn Man" Exavier Wardlaw is "baby daddy".
There's three problems with Danish fertility:
1 - Out-of-wedlock births are HIGH in Denmark. About 54%. That's HALF.
2 - There has be little difference in advancing the birth rate. Getting birth rate from the lows of 1 to something like 2 isn't really something extraordinary. It's pretty small. I'd be actually impressed if it went from 1 to something like +3.
3 - Secular "Muslim" women who call themselves Muslim are not religious whatsoever. We have "Christian" women in the USA who don't practice their religion and still call themselves Christian.
It's like Richard Dawkins calling himself a Christian. LOL
Steve said,
"...And I'm saying that as a loyal Angeleno, where beauty contest winners have been getting off the bus since 1915."
Steve,
What does your wife think of this? My husband, his father, etc. are known for being extremely loyal without a womanizer in the bunch, despite a mostly working-class background. And yet, it doesn't matter, I could not handle this.
You're either a jealous person or not. Your wife must not be a jealous person at all.
I was discussing your posts about Germans and nude beaches just two days ago with my mom and she believes the Irish, and most everyone else, are way too jealous for such things. She then repeated one of her favorite observations: Germans are weird.
Denmark certainly has better immigration policies than Sweden. But all Scandinavian countries have sub-replacement fertility among the indigenous population. So do all European countries. There seems little sign of this changing in the short to medium term, either.
According to Jayman, Denmark is at 1.9 for educated women and 2.0 for uneducated. Muslim immigrants are down to 1.88.
That's not quite replacement-level fertility among the natives, but it's close enough. And the Muslim tide appears to be receding.
This result might appear to discredit immigrant alarmists, but I'll bet that it's largely due TO the immigration alarmists (e.g., the anti-immigration party managed to get social-welfare benefits cut for new arrivals, likely contributing to their dampened fertility).
Cennbeorc
"'Here's a posting on the somewhat tenuous but intriguing evidence that little Denmark has had some success at... maintaining educated white women's fertility not too far below replacement.'
Wow, there's a noteworthy accomplishment."
But not quite as noteworthy as popping out kids who require cradle to grave care on someone else's dime, right?
"If unpleasant behavior was all there was to it, there wouldn't be any virgins. Anyone can behave unpleasantly."
Unpleasant behavior is not the same thing as jerkitude. A socially inept, whiny nerd who always has to be right is not attractive to many women, but an overconfident, smooth talking, socially dominating, aloof asshole is attractive to many women.
The key difference that differentiates sexually desirable jerks from unpleasant jerks is outcome independence, or a reasonable facsimile thereof. The former have it, the latter don't. It's the uncaring assholes, not he caring assholes, that women love.
That's the guy who went by jmthegenius at halfsigma's and was literally always wrong about education?
Southern European men are pretty much known as the sexiest in the world.
What on earth does a prosperous and modern country like Denmark need muslim immigrants for? What can Somalis etc, possibly 'contribute" to Demark or any other western country (except to leave it)?
Diversity is the greatest of all things! Just ask the US Supreme Court, for whom it trumps the US Constitution.
Milan in 1980 struck me as home to, on average, the most beautiful women in the world
I guess if you're gifted at marketing, statistics, horizontal reasoning and irony, you end up with a beauty appreciation deficit. I was in Milan in 1977 and 1988, and the whole city has fewer pretty women than one block of Manhattan Beach.
"social expectations that [Danish] women can walk around in public without being all made-up. In contrast, in Italy, modern women are expected to ... look like Monica Belluci all the time."
come on, Nords are back to nature types. They like the natural look. A lot of nordic women really do look good with literally nothing on.
Suggesions for Italy's low fertility rate:
High youth unemployment
Expensive housing (relative to wages)
General overcrowding
Young Italian families moving to other countries like Australia
- note that white fertility in the UK is reduced because so many British white families move to other countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
First of all, thanks for the bump, Steve! :)
It's not just lots of paid maternal leave and the like, but also social expectations that women can walk around in public without being all made-up. In contrast, in Italy, modern women are expected to have it all: a job, be a good cook, and look like Monica Belluci all the time.
***
I don't know anything about Scandinavia, but I always thought that the difference between Italy's fertility rate and Ireland's was that Irish husbands' vice tends to be drink rather than adultery. So if an Irish woman has three kids in six years and takes a year and a half after the birth of her third to get her figure back she is less likely to be dealing with an unfaithful husband.
Italian women, on the other hand, know that unless they are always at the top of their game they are likely to get cheated on. Italian traditionally cheat on their wives when they're pregnant. All the more reason to reduce pregnancy as much as possible.
Here's a possible explanation for this apparent phenomenon:
As per HBD Chick's thought, men and women inside the Hajnal line, where marriage was late, may have been selected for lower sex drives. (How else could one wait until their mid to late 20s before having sex?)
By contrast, outside the Hajnal line, where marriage was early and breeding more prodigious (offset by a higher death rate), sex drives probably remained high— particularly in the warmer southern parts where the cost for having extra children out-of-wedlock (for men and women) may have been lower.
This is how you end up with these guys: Putin & Berlusconi: good buddies.
As behavior in Southern and Eastern Europe trends somewhat more towards the r-side of the spectrum than in NW Europe, people are more obsessed with their own sex appeal (this pattern continues more or less on a gradient as you continue to go south into the Middle East and Africa).
Hence, with modern sensibilities, we see the lower fertility in Southern and Eastern Europe as a result. (Although some of this, especially in Italy, is likely due to population pressure—hence cost of living—since, as can be seen, it's pretty crowded there compared to most parts of the continent.)
"The problem in Southern Europe is sexy men. Not enough of them. Southern European women have higher standards of macho sexiness, the asshole factor has to be much, much stronger with their men in order for them to have kids -- and women don't care much about infidelity vs. sexiness. How many random European women would have George Clooney's baby with no possibility of support or caring? Around 80% I'd reckon."
I will add that Whiskey is likely on to something. In warmer climates, extraversion and "alpha" traits seem to be more desired by women than these traits are desired in the colder northern parts (where people are more introverted). Just compare the behavior of the average Finnish male to the average Southern Italian one...
This may be related to the greater importance of a male provider in northern climates.
It would be interesting to somehow research historical rates of de facto polygyny across Europe. One would imagine that it simply must have been higher in the South -- and perhaps was higher in the East, because men there may have been more successful at leaving surviving offspring from impregnating multiple women, as per HBD Chick's, Steve's and, Peter Frost's observations.
"A socially inept, whiny nerd who always has to be right is not attractive to many women..."
I thought that alphas, as you envision them, always have to be right as well. Wouldn't admitting one's fault or mistakes, real or not, be very beta in your view of things? So that's one supposed contrast gone.
"1 - Out-of-wedlock births are HIGH in Denmark. About 54%. That's HALF."
That's because there is so much support for motherhood in these Scandinavian countries. Its a fatal flaw in the idea this article writes about, because it causes women to develop dependency on Big Brother Government as the breadwinner instead of a husband, and raise children in single parent homes which are suboptimal for kids.
Danish mothers are unwed, not single. Technically they aren't married but they are usually living with the father of the kids. So, no, these are not like the baby mamas in the Chicago ghetto.
it:
"I thought that alphas, as you envision them, always have to be right as well. Wouldn't admitting one's fault or mistakes, real or not, be very beta in your view of things? "
avoiding admitting mistakes or faults is not the same as always having to be right.
but thank you for playing.
ps re: jayman's "more gubment support for maternity leave is good for white fertility" argument --
1. who says white fertility has to be maximized? the nations of europe and the US could be very pleasant places to live at population levels half of what they currently are, if the people residing within are generally civilized, similar in predilection, and trusting of one another.
2. government hand-outs in the form of mandated maternity leave and assorted affirmative action for women with children or single women seeking to have children someday will only motivate women to choose mate prospects less on provider potential and more on sexiness. we already see that happening in the lower and working classes in america.
3. it's not very moral or just to force men, particularly single men, and post-menopausal women to pay the childless woman danegeld, even if the policy is "effective" at increasing the native population. personally, i'd just as soon reduce all immigration to zero and let the native population level chips fall where they may. i think there is a good possibility the native population rebounds organically once the quasi-genocidal threat of masses of foreign migrants is ended and the multicult experiment discarded in whole.
"1 - Out-of-wedlock births are HIGH in Denmark. About 54%. That's HALF."
That's because there is so much support for motherhood in these Scandinavian countries. Its a fatal flaw in the idea this article writes about, because it causes women to develop dependency on Big Brother Government as the breadwinner instead of a husband, and raise children in single parent homes which are suboptimal for kids.
Out-of-wedlock birth != single-parent "family." The nuclear family long preceded the modern concept of marriage.
Smaller intact families = Nuclear families.
Large intact families = Extended families.
The extended family is making a huge comeback in the USA right now. It's coming back.
There's typically two large family norms: nuclear vs. extended
Anyone who thinks the net effect of the Danish wefare state model can slow the growth of a huge nonwhite minority is living in a fantasy world
"Heinsohn observes that a single woman in rural India on birth control pills would, in peasant circles, be denigrated as a virtual prostitute. She would risk undermining her marriage prospects and thereby a secure future. But this outlook changes dramatically, Heinsohn notes, "when a woman goes to Mumbai to work in the hi-tech sector... she will have 1.7 children, just like a European woman."
Post a Comment