From the Pew Hispanic Center:
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed
The sharp decline in the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population that accompanied the Great Recession has bottomed out, and the number may be rising again. An estimated 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the U.S. in March 2012, according to a new preliminary Pew Research Center estimate. Different trends appear among the six states in which 60% of unauthorized immigrants live—California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Texas. Of these, only Texas had increases in its unauthorized immigrant population between 2007 and 2011. The analysis also finds that the post-2007 population dip was sharper for Mexicans than for unauthorized immigrants as a whole.
I, personally, have no idea how many illegal aliens there are in the U.S., and I doubt if the Pew organization is all that much more accurately informed. It's a tough methodological problem. On the other hand, I've found the Pew Hispanic Center researchers to be more honest than they need to be, so I wouldn't discount their numbers, either. For example, this announcement isn't welcome news for Schumer-Rubio.
One possibility is that they are off on the number but right about trends. For example, their claim of a falloff in new illegal immigrants after 2007 was backed up by the birth data. New illegal immigrants have a lot of babies, but overall Hispanic fertility dropped sharply in 2009-2010, backing up Pew's call of a decline in illegal immigration. We'll eventually see if the 2012 birth data backs them up on their call of an upswing.
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Actually,though I think Mexican birth rates will dropped even from rural areas since the trend is downward but they are younger so they gain. There is still a downward birth rate in Latin America, the days of 4 plus kids is probably over. Brazil is Mexico future and the rural areas take longer but it will happen.
From roughly 2000 to 2010, total fertility rates for Hispanic women declined from 3.0 births per woman to 2.4, according to the Arizona State Demographer's Office. The drop was most pronounced for Hispanic women younger than 20 years old. Birthrates for Hispanic women 35 years and older increased slightly but are a relatively small portion of total births.
All of Latin America except some of Central America countries are dropping. And foreign born will continue to dropped, Steve will be shocked, Santa Ana down to 1.8 in the 2020's.
I think Asian illegals are vastly under-counted in these studies.
It's misleading to look at 2000 to 2010. Instead Look at Hispanic fertility, especially among unmarried women, from 2000 to 2007, and then from 2007 to 2012.
http://www.vdare.com/articles/demography-is-destiny-and-our-destiny-courtesy-of-immigration-policy-is-disastrous
They probably are, unlike Mexican and Central Americans that go through smugglers and some expired work vistas, Asians are involved with Marriage schemes, sex slavery, and so forth. Mexicans do some of the sex slavery as well and bring in Russian girls from Mexico brothels.
There's definitely been an upswing in construction. That would imply an upswing in illegals. Steve has talked about a slight decoupling in attitudes to immigration in Europe and America. I'm under the impression that much of Europe hasn't recovered from the crisis that started in 2008. In the US there's been a noticeable recovery. Maybe that can help explain the difference in attitudes.
2012 birth data:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_03.pdf
Well, also the illegals are employed in growth industries like construction, farm work, and restaurant while the native born are employed in retail. Retail I think is getting hit by online ordering which means it probably more of a call center job if someone orders the wrong item online or a warehouse job instead of a store front jobs. We been talking about ways to make Mexican jobs more by automation or robotic but that keeps being delayed. The problem is many of fast food are being also done by blacks in the Midwest and in Kentucky there are some white maids but its hard to convince the brass why they should not hire an illegal. I read about trends where college grads are more in service jobs pushing the less educated. A trend would be for construction to pick up some college kids again, not easy though.
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-announces-tighter-rules-hiring-041034777.html
Singapore announces tighter rules for hiring skilled foreigners
i agree. the mexicans are coming again.
this is easy to notice though. just trust your lying eyes. when you start seeing random mexicans walking the streets and loitering in strip malls, in towns where there didn't used to be any, then you know.
over the last year, mexicans started showing up in my city, where there didn't used to be any. there hasn't been a big increase in job openings, so they're coming in anticipation of the amnesty, or under some guidance that US law enforcement has become as lax as ever.
right now i live in pennsylvania, in a suburb where there is no farming, and little construction. they must be coming for restaurant industry jobs and other bottom of the ladder unskilled labor positions, getting paid minimum wage or below. because there are no other jobs here for them.
there are medical field jobs here. pretty sure none of them are being filled by these guys.
back in july, i went to a wedding in central pennsylvania that was held at a resort built on a farm, where they do big expensive weddings once or twice a month for people with the money for that kind of thing, and a lot of the food served at the reception is grown on the farm.
the contrast between PA and the west coast is amazing. there are no mexicans almost anywhere in most of the state, just old stock americans, doing all the work in every industry. which the people in california tell me is impossible.
i might make a move to colorado at the end of the year or beginning of next year, won't be able to avoid them out there.
The great mexican famine of 2013?
the contrast between PA and the west coast is amazing. there are no mexicans almost anywhere in most of the state, just old stock americans, doing all the work in every industry
jody - come to Atlanta--hell, come anywhere in the Sun Belt--and you will be shocked. Suffice to say, what folks in this corner of the internet would consider actual immigration reform is impossible at this point. This thing will just have to play itself out.
Like Brimelow says, it will all end in tears.
"jody - come to Atlanta--hell, come anywhere in the Sun Belt"
i lived in north carolina for 2 years. was shocked at how many mexicans there were in some parts of the state. nothing like CA or TX, but the beginnings of the invasion were underway in NC.
In this updated estimate, some states lost both native-born population and foreign-born population while others were gaining. States that saw major jumps in foreign-born residents included Pennsylvania (up 31.6% vs. 5.0% for the native-born), South Carolina (up 24.5% vs. -3.6%), Wyoming (up 23.2% vs. 1.7%), New Hampshire (21.8% vs. 5.0%), and Utah (20.5% vs. 1.8%). Well with guest worker Ted Cruz he wants no limits on legal immigration from Mexico, China or India just like the liberals that he is filibustering over Obama Care. These stats show probably legal and illegal immigrants are moving to areas not apart of the gateway like California, New York or Texas or Florida its spreading faster in other parts since maybe there is too much immigrant competition in the larger states.
More Central Americans. Steve may be right since some of those Central American countries have more babies than do Mexicans. The route now is not so much the California or Arizona Border but the Texas border through El Paso. This is easier for the Central Americans who don't have as good as smuggling networks since they probably don't have the money to pay the smugglers. This explains big jumps in Utah, Wyoming, Pennsylvanian or South Carolina since this is a little more direct route than Arizona or Texas. The biggest jumps might not be California or Texas this time but lots of other places.
Central Americans unlike Mexicans may not have a construction background and heading to do the cook jobs or fast food if they know broken English. Also, unlike Mexicans there less concentrated in the US in certain states. Another reason why they may prefer heading to Pennsylvania instead of staying in Texas when they enter through the El Paso Sector
New Pew Report Confirms Visa Overstays Are Driving Increased Illegal Immigration, Center for immigration studies. Mexicans and the other countries are not stupid we are since they are coming on Tour Vistas and overstaying.
This included destinations in the Midwest and the South, where Latin American immigrant networks, mostly Mexican, have become well-established and the cost of living is less. What initially began as immigrants leaving California for other states has led to these regions becoming destinations in their own right, with many newcomers bypassing California altogether.
"California's primary role in immigration to the United States, while it remains strong, is much less than it used to be," said Hans Johnson, a demographer with PPIC.
Another interesting wrinkle involves California's changing demographics: In the past five years, immigration from Asia to California is also having an effect on the state's share of unauthorized immigrants, Johnson said.
While there are an estimated 1.3 million unauthorized Asian immigrants nationwide, many of them overstaying their visas, the majority of newcomers from Asia tend to arrive either on family-based visas or skilled worker visas, Johnson said. This translates into more newcomers arriving in California with legal status, he said, which in turn shifts the makeup of the state's immigrant population overall.Still, the unauthorized workers who help power California's agricultural, manufacturing, service, hospitality and construction industries haven't exactly left in large numbers. According to a February 2013 PPIC report, there were about 1.85 million of them in the state's labor force, accounting for about one-tenth of the workforce. Unauthorized immigrants are an especially big part of Southern California's economy: Close to 1 million (about 900,000) live in Los Angeles County alone.
For many, the report contains surprising information. For example, while Chinese Americans are still the region's largest Asian ethnic group, the fastest-growing group is Bangladeshis: Between 2000 and 2010, L.A. County's Bangladeshi population grew 122 percent. Of the five fastest growing Asian groups in the county, four are South Asian.
"The fastest growing groups are from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India," said Stewart Kwoh, the director of Asian Americans Advancing Justice – Los Angeles. "In fact, nationwide, South Asians are the fastest growing Asian ethnic group."
Another overlooked fact: While many Asian newcomers arriving in the U.S. come on family-based or work visas, at least 130,000 Asian and Pacific Islander immigrants in Los Angeles County are believed to be here illegally.
They include immigrants from Pacific Islander groups like Tongans, a community that's concentrated in the South Bay. Alisi Tulua of the advocacy group, Empowering Pacific Islander Communities, says many Tongans arrived on visitor visas during the construction boom and stayed to work.
“A lot of people just overlook the fact that they are immigrants, and largely an undocumented population," Tulua said. "A lot of the community are really hoping for immigration reform to pass, because it would really benefit a lot of the families.”
In addition to a path to legal status, Asian American immigrant advocates have pushed to preserve family visa categories, two of which stand to be cut under the current Senate reform proposal.
But as far as policy implications go, immigration is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this growing population. There are deep divides in terms of legal status, income, education and access to health care. For example, the annual per capita income of Tongans and Cambodians in LA county is below that of Latinos – and just a fraction of that earned by Indians.
“If we don’t disaggregate and show the different ethnic groups, then those groups are going to get left behind and pretty much ignored,” Kwoh said.
Nearly two-thirds of Asian Americans in L.A. County are foreign born. Kwoh believes public policies that help integrate the many different types of immigrants – for example, better access to English classes for newcomers – will help guarantee these families can fully participate in the wider society.
n a ceremony in downtown Los Angeles this morning, Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law a bill that will increase California’s minimum wage to $10 an hour over three years.
It is the first hike to the state’s minimum wage in six years, and will make the rate one of the highest in the nation. The legislation gradually raises the current minimum of $8 an hour to $9 on July 1, 2014, then to $10 on Jan. 1, 2016. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour.
Brown called the bill an overdue piece of legislation that will help working-class families, closing the gap between “workers at the bottom and those who occupy the commanding heights of the economy,” according to news coverage of the ceremony, which will be repeated in Oakland this afternoon.
The California Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business were among several business groups that fought the hike, arguing that it would drive up business costs and lead to a loss of jobs.
Vdare has mention this as a way to drive out illegal immigrants is to drive up the minimum wage. This isn't a great increase but some Republicans mention that driving up the minimum wage could lead to ipad devices to buy with debt or credit card or a burger flipping machine that cold do 400 burgers. Liberals have been nicer to them but the higher wages if it leaves to those developments like Ipad where people use less cashiers or a burger flipping machine less employees might drive some of them out of the job market. Just because they can served on juries doesn't mean they will have a job if the wages are driven up.
Steve wrote about the higher wages of the Bay area versus LA-Orange about 10 years ago when there is more illegal immigrants with low wage areas. Maybe the minimum wage up a couple dollars will bring the Ipad and burger flipping machine or reduce some hours which might hurt some legal but its a lucky shot.
Mexicans and other Latins will have influence in the next decade since they are younger and probably grow up to 2040 but there appears to be new groups coming.
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