September 10, 2013

The last amnesty in graphical form

Federal reports on the Total Fertility Rate of expected babies per woman's lifetime seldom bother to break out Hispanics before 1989, so the impact of the 1986 amnesty on Hispanic immigrant fertility, one of the key events of recent California history (e.g., the overwhelming of public schools), is almost utterly unknown. Indeed, the linkage of unskilled immigration with fertility is barely understood. 

However, the numbers have been calculated.

This graph is from p. 26 of the Public Policy Institute of California's 2002 book, Understanding the Future of Californians’ Fertility: The Role of Immigrants by PPIC demographers Laura E. Hill and Hans P. Johnson. They calculated the TFR rates by ethnicity in California from 1982 onward, demonstrating the huge pig-in-a-python bulge among foreign-born Hispanics that followed the 1986 amnesty legislation. Hill and Johnson write on pp. 27-28:
Between 1987 and 1991, total fertility rates for foreign-born Hispanics increased from 3.2 to 4.4.

And they go on to explain how the amnesty caused this.

The important 2010 paper How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the U.S.? Immigration and Tempo Considerations by Emilio A. Parrado of the University of Pennsylvania came to a similar conclusion: illegal immigration boosts Hispanic fertility. (Interestingly, Parrado was most interested to hear from me about the PPIC work of 2002 -- in other words, even an expert in the field wasn't aware of it.)

Illegal immigrant women have lots of babies soon after arriving in America. Thus, the sharp drop in Hispanic fertility since its recent peak in 2007 is largely due to the sharp drop in illegal immigration after Bush's Housing Bubble burst. Conversely, giving amnesty to illegal immigrants today, will encourage them to invite in women and have lots of children, just as in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

No doubt, in the current mindset, we will be informed that The Economy desperately needs this boost of another baby boom among amnestied unskilled illegal immigrants (think of the increased disposable diaper sales!). But the more prudent might wish to consider what exactly the Schumer-Rubio bill portends.


Anonymous said...

You said it best last week. American exceptionalism- the cynical notion that we should have to compete for the services citizens in other countries take for granted. Like having the sword of damocles over your head in terms of job security and health care, because the 'free market' demands it be. People like McCain and Jeb Bush optimize this.

Anonymous said...

To veer off-topic, in fact to go back to a very interesting post from a few years ago, if Bill DiBlasio becomes New York City's next mayor (as seems likely), he may be a strong contender for The Tallest Famous Person Who Is Famous for Reasons Unrelated to Height. He claims to be 6'5" but towers over people to a greater extent that you'd expect in someone of that height. In addition, he also seems to stoop down a bit in most photos. It would not surprise me if DiBlasio is shaving a few inches off his actual height in order to seem less freakish.


Steve Sailer said...

The Russian oligarch who owns the Brooklyn Nets is listed at 6'-8" and is taller than many of his basketball players.

Anonymous said...

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – New data released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has provided a glimpse of the future characteristics of the Brazilian populace. Among the more arresting projections is the forecast that Brazil’s population will peak at roughly 228 million in 2042.

Brazil Population to Peak in 2042, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil News
If trends continue, the Brazilian population is expected to peak in the year 2042, photo by Luiz Fernando and Sonia Maria/Flickr Creative Commons License.
By 2060, the number of Brazilians will have dropped to 2025 levels due to slowing birth rates, according to the center that is tasked with compiling data on Brazil’s population.

In addition to having fewer children, women will likely have children later in life, two important features found in developed economies.

Brazilian women currently have an average of 1.77 children and this is expected to drop to 1.5 in 2030. According to experts, the population replacement rate, which takes into account how many children women have to replace themselves, is 2.1.
Hope to introduce some soap operas into Mexico that will cut Mexican birth rate to Brazilian levels, Rubio and the Bushes will flip that Mexicans are now having babies like Spain and Italy and Portugal.

Steve Sailer said...

An article about Di Blasio says he's hunched over all the time in part to avoid bumping overhanging objects with his head. I'm exactly 6'4 and I don't have to worry about that much at all. (The standard doorframe is 6'8".) I whine sometime about how it would be better to be 6'2" than 6'4", but in truth the disadvantages of height only start to pile up rapidly above 6'4". The banging your head problem probably starts around, what, 6'6" and gets much worse once you are taller than the standard doorframe -- with a one inch sole on your shoes, that would be anything over 6'7".

Anonymous said...

We talk about the white liberals that don't have kids. Let the libs in the Democratic Party convert Mexicans to the good of having less babies. I would like to see in 2025 La and Santa Ana convert to 1.5 kids while Santa Clarita and Rancho Santa Margitria whites stay at 1.8. Say Brazilian Soap Operas which will caused the population of Brazil to peak in 2060. Pushed you 2nd and 3rd Mexicans to liberal politics that say less babies and have them have Soap Opera characters their parents will like that have only one kid like the Brazilian soap Operas. Chant, Mexico will be like Brazil and Chile less and less babies, less Catholic influence even in rural areas.

great height said...

Yesterday Joel Kotkin upgraded you to "conservative theoretician;" about a month ago Ann Coulter had put you at "journalist" before which it was bobbing around "blogger." At this rate you'll be either a demographics expert or public policy intellectual by December and within striking distance of eminence grise before your event next year at a Shorenstein Center, Boston-area one for preference

Douglas Knight said...

Older construction on the east coast might be shorter than on the west coast. Also, weirdly carved up apartments can have tight squeezes, even if they started as very tall industrial spaces; and these are probably more common in NY than LA.

Anonymous said...

I believe the Brazilian model could be introduce to Mexican immirgants in the US, get those Soap operas with one kid on Telemundo. Think Mexicans in US in 2030 being below the replacement level it can be done.

Anonymous said...

Interesting, US born Asians have the lowest birth rate and Black birth rates are lower than expected.

Anonymous said...

Acutally, doubt mexicans will have more babies than they did in the past since Tv and such in Mexico and Latin America states its less cool but they are younger so they gain on whites but I do think we can changed Mexicans here to have less kids, Mexicans are attracted to the Democrats that have people that are into having less kids and I think a lot of La Raza types could adopt that thinking. I think what is happening in Brazil can be brought more to Mexico and even among rural Mexican immigrants. At the most Mexican immigrants will have 2 to 4, few 5 as they did in the past. The kids generation which will have more babies in the immigrants by 2020 will drop at least to the black level. All around the world, except the Philippines and Central America are having less kids. Filipinos have less kids in the States and someone could convince Mexicans and Central Americans to do particularity if their politics moved leftward. One thing Mexicans are leaving Catholicism and moving Protestant or secular which means less babies, less against birth control.

Anonymous said...

Sao Paulo, Brazil, May 30, 2007 / 11:23 am (CNA).- According to, the government of Brazil announced Monday a plan to provide artificial hormonal contraceptives to the public at a discounted cost in drug stores across the country.

Brazil’s socialist president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, told media that the plan will give poor Brazilians “the same right that the wealthy have to plan the number of children they want.”

Government-run pharmacies already distribute chemical contraceptives and condoms for free, but the new program will make the pills available at low cost in 3,500 privately owned businesses. The government hopes to have the discounted pills available at 10,000 stores by the end of the year.
Pushed for the Mexican government to do the same. And pushed in Hispanic cities for this in the US.

anony-mouse said...

Well however tall de Blasio is, his election as mayor will lead eventually to a lot of New Yorkers fleeing before they're killed. Maybe they'll get to CA?

diana said...

De Blasio is 6'7". I'm not sure where I read that, can't find corroboration, but I did, some years back.

I've seen him campaigning and that seems to be about right, but at a foot less than that, I can't vouch.

Don't be so sure he'll be the next mayor - NYC has a history of voting Republican for mayor, Democrat for everything else.

A Chinese-American ran. He came in ahead of Carlos Danger. The Chinese need to get more colorful.

Joel Kotkin mentioned Sailer, here:

He seems dismayed by the family attitudes of his ideological confreres. I feel as if he's saying: "Why can't a Democrat be more like a Republican" (in terms of baby-making.)

Anonymous said...

Michael De Anda Muñoz is in no rush to get to the altar and start a family. Neither are many of his peers, mostly college-educated 20-somethings.

"Marriage is not really a goal for us," said Muñoz, a 24-year-old Ph.D. candidate in sociology at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "Some are completely against it ... A lot of us come from families
where parents are divorced."
Not an immirgant Mexican but a second and third generation which means that some second and third generation Latins think more like Americans. Its not the immirgant thinking but there is a changed of thinking now among the 2nd and 3rd generation.

john marzan said...

"Illegal immigrant women have lots of babies soon after arriving in America. "

they were told that this would increase their chance of not getting deported.

having multiple anchor babies, that is.

an admission by grisel ibarra during the CIS immigration panel("the believe if they just breed like rabbits, they are going to be able to stay here")

start @7:59

john marzan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

OT, but

"The income gap between the richest 1% of Americans and the other 99% widened to a record margin in 2012, according to an analysis of tax filings."

It's a good thing we didn't elect that friend of the plutocrats, Mitt Romney! Obama will put those fat cats in their place .... any day now.

Anonymous said...

Steve, how have you not commented on some of the NYT articles of the past several days? Harvard puts a militant lesbian feminist in charge of its business school, and there's no corresponding iSteve analysis?

Steve Sailer said...

Abraham Lincoln had it tough at 6'4". That was probably about a standard deviation taller than it is today, putting him out around 6-6 to 6-7 in contemporary terms. (Americans were always pretty tall because we ate well.) But stuff -- beds, chairs, doors -- was built even smaller back then that average height would imply to save money. You can visit his Springfield house from the 1850s. It's pretty nice -- unless you are as tall as Lincoln.

Steve Sailer said...

"Steve, how have you not commented on some of the NYT articles of the past several days? Harvard puts a militant lesbian feminist in charge of its business school, and there's no corresponding iSteve analysis?"

Anonymous said...

"He seems dismayed by the family attitudes of his ideological confreres. I feel as if he's saying: "Why can't a Democrat be more like a Republican" (in terms of baby-making.)"

Kotkin is a douche who, in spite of being good with numbers, is just as much in the thrall of Cathedral thinking as anyone else.

Anonymous said...

He seems dismayed by the family attitudes of his ideological confreres. I feel as if he's saying: "Why can't a Democrat be more like a Republican" (in terms of baby-making.)
Personality, Joel is not that great, he likes the fact that Mexicans brought up the growth and stated once the economy picks up they will increase having kids in Texas. Joel also states that La and Orange County have less Hispanic and Asian immirgants coming which is bad for them. Joel spends and harps too much on having kids when it would be nice if whites had more kids but more immirgation by Hisapnics and Asians will not caused whites to have kids. By the way, yeah Dems have less kids but Rush, Ann C and some other Republicans don't have natural kids either. Republicans also don't have the 3 to 4 kids they did 10 years ago, they are having less kids as well. Democrats harp less on having kids and support it less because of environment. The Republican way and the Joel Konkin way will increase births among Hispanics more than whites. Texas youth 5 and under are now only 31 percent white. So, convincing Latins to have less kids and whites to have a little more but not the 3 to 4 would work better.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't it Lincoln who said, "It is better to say you're 6'4" than to admit you're 6'6" and remove all doubt"?

Anonymous said...

"Steve, how have you not commented on some of the NYT articles of the past several days? Harvard puts a militant lesbian feminist in charge of its business school, and there's no corresponding iSteve analysis?"

Had a good laugh when I came back and saw that title.

Anonymous said...

That Joel Kotkin piece is dishonest, almost slanderous.

"Steven Sailer, a staunchly anti-immigrant conservative theoretician .."

I thought Steve was against mass immigration, not individual immigrants.

Anonymous said...

Orange County’s rates are lower than the state as a whole: 3.0 for Asian Americans, 5.7 for whites, 13.9 for African Americans and 41.2 for Latinos. The county’s rate overall is 21.4 births per 1,000 girls and young women aged 15-19.
Think if there was the level of Hispanics in 1981, OC would have a European level of teen birth.

Anonymous said...

On the topic of height, interestingly enough 6'4" seems to be the optimal height for NFL Quarterbacks. Brady, Manning, Elway, & Marino were all that height. And while there are/were hall-of-fame caliber QBs considerably shorter than that (Montana and Brees come to mind), there definitely seems to be diminishing returns above that height. 6'4" is probably optimal because you are tall enough to look past the front-line behemoths to the open field, but not so tall that coordination and agility are sacrificed. 6'6" Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger may have won Super Bowls, but I doubt they'll ever be hall-of-fame level QBs.

Black Death said...

And Hispanics were SOOOOO grateful to the Republicans for the 1986 amnesty that they rewarded the GOP and Bush I with 30% of their votes in 1988.

Anonymous said...

"That Joel Kotkin piece is dishonest, almost slanderous."

Anyone who's read anything he's written would not be surprised.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday Joel Kotkin upgraded you to "conservative theoretician;" about a month ago Ann Coulter had put you at "journalist" before which it was bobbing around "blogger."

This is all about manipulating words to produce a certain emotional effect on readers.

Different words have different connotations. "Blogger" just connotes a regular guy who just writes about his opinions. Readers themselves may be bloggers. But "theoretician" connotes something much more serious, sinister even. Sort of like "mad" scientist. A "theoretician" suggests someone who is trying to manipulate and devise ideas for certain ends.