May 25, 2005

Unaffordable Family Formation in San Francisco

Unaffordable Family Formation in San Francisco: Baghdad by the Bay is the foremost example of the Dirt Gap in action: a seven mile wide mountainous peninsula surrounded by salt water almost inevitably translates into a limited supply of housing and high prices:

Child Population Dwindles in San Francisco

By LISA LEFF, Associated Press Writer

Anne Bakstad and Ed Cohen are starting to feel as if their family of four is an endangered species in San Francisco. Since the couple bought a house five years ago, more than a dozen families in their social circle have left the city for cheaper housing, better schools or both.

The goodbyes are so frequent that Carina, age 4 1/2, wants to know when she is going to move, too. Eric, 2 1/2, misses Gus, his playmate from across the street.

"When we get to know people through our kids, we think to ourselves, `Are they renters or owners? Where do they work?' You have to figure out how much time to invest in people," Bakstad said. "It makes you feel like, `Where is everyone going? Stay with us!'"

A similar lament is being heard in San Francisco's half-empty classrooms, in parks where parents are losing ground to dog owners, and in the corridors of City Hall.

San Francisco has the smallest share of small-fry of any major U.S. city. Just 14.5 percent of the city's population is 18 and under.

It is no mystery why U.S. cities are losing children. The promise of safer streets, better schools and more space has drawn young families away from cities for as long as America has had suburbs.

But kids are even more scarce in San Francisco than in expensive New York (24 percent) or in retirement havens such as Palm Beach, Fla., (19 percent), according to Census estimates.

San Francisco's large gay population — estimated at 20 percent by the city Public Health Department — is thought to be one factor, though gays and lesbians in the city are increasingly raising families.

Another reason San Francisco's children are disappearing: Family housing in the city is especially scarce and expensive. A two-bedroom, 1,000-square-foot starter home is considered a bargain at $760,000.

A recent survey by the city controller found 40 percent of parents said they were considering pulling up stakes within the next year.

Determined to change things, Mayor Gavin Newsom has put the kid crisis near the top of his agenda, appointing a 27-member policy council to develop plans for keeping families in the city... And voters have approved measures to patch up San Francisco's public schools, which have seen enrollment drop from about 62,000 to 59,000 since 2000...

"We are at a crossroads here," said N'Tanya Lee, executive director of the nonprofit Coleman Advocates for Children and Youth. "We are moving toward a place where we could have an infrastructure of children's services and no children."

Other cities are trying similar strategies. Seattle has created a children's fund, like the one in San Francisco. Leaders in Portland, Ore., are pushing developers to build affordable housing for families, a move Newsom has also tried.

For families choosing to stay in San Francisco, life remains a series of trade-offs. They can enjoy world-class museums, natural beauty and an energy they say they cannot find in the suburbs. But most families need two or more incomes to keep their homes, and their children spend most of their days being cared for by others.

"We have so many friends who are moving out and say how much easier life has been for them," Bakstad said. "If we can make it work in the city, we would love to stay. In a way, the jury is out."

As I pointed out in "Affordable Family Formation," the adults moving out to find affordable housing and schooling for their children are more likely to become Republican family values voters than the ones who stay and don't have children because they like the San Francisco lifestyle so much.

Now, some people move to San Francisco specifically because they don't have family values (e.g., a lot of gay men move there). But other people end up in a city because when they got out of college, that's where they got the best job offer. And people naturally put down roots wherever they are and adopt some of the local norms. An interesting question would be: What's the impact on your likelihood of getting married and on your average number of children if you take a job first in SF or NYC vs. Atlanta or Dallas?

That leads to a more general question that I'd like your advice upon: The extraordinarily high correlations between measures of family formation (such as the marriage rate and the birth rate) and Bush's share of the vote in the last two elections are obviously the result of two effects. More conservative people move to cheaper areas to have families, and, people who are living in more liberal, more expensive areas are less likely to go down the family path and become family voters because of the cost and culture of their urban area. But, how do I estimate the size of the two effects? My gut feeling is that correlations are driven 50% by people moving and 50% by people not moving and being affected by their locality.

But what is a good approach to quantifying this breakdown?

My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer

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