Supposedly, the Supreme Court will announce its decision in Ricci v. DeStefano on Monday.
What are your predictions?
Also, feel free to make predictions about how the Sotomayor hearings will play out.
And if you feel an urgent need to refresh yourself on all the wisdom I've been dispensing on the topics of "Ricci" or "Sotomayor," just click the Labels below.
What are your predictions?
Also, feel free to make predictions about how the Sotomayor hearings will play out.
And if you feel an urgent need to refresh yourself on all the wisdom I've been dispensing on the topics of "Ricci" or "Sotomayor," just click the Labels below.
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
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14 comments:
5-4 in favor of the original decision for New Haven.
And things continue to crumble. But, hopefully I'm wrong.
5-4 in favor of Ricci, but very limited in its scope and based primarily on a technicality, not on general principles. No landmark decision. A small victory but no great cause for celebration among opponents of Affirmative Action.
Sotomayor much more important than Ricci, which will be a decisive win for Ricci and a strong refutation of lower court's ruling.
With Sotomayor the diversity pimp the Republicans have a huge opening to paint Obama as a diversity pimp, old-fashioned liberal, and a liar (ie, he's not for change but the status quo).
The Republicans should be ruthless. Will they be? No.
US needs a new party.
Doesn't matter the left continues to carry out its agenda in spite of the law, Constitution, judges (the few true conservative ones left) just look at California and the Unis' defiance of 209
Ricci et al. -155
City of New Haven +135
I also think Ricci will win 5-4, and I disagree that it will be narrow.
Kennedy is the only swing vote, and he is to the right of O'Connor on these issues.
2nd prediction: Sotomayor easily confirmed.
Business groups have decided they will be better off trying to live with her than launch a kamikaze assult, and the socons and have 20-30 votes in the Senate and no money.
Ricci: in favor, but narrow decision.
Sotomayor: definitely getting confirmed
Seriously, I doubt that Sontamayor would vote for anything that Souter would not have voted for, (or is that vice versa?) or anything that his next nominee will not vote for. They will vote with the Left on every issue that comes to the court.
Sontamayor will at least be an alienating presence and an obvious fool that might embarrass Obama for his entire career.
Ricci wins.
Speculation that the case will be sent back down to verify that the test was not discriminatory will not occur for 2 reasons: 1) the burden is on the city to show that the test was discriminatory, which they already had the opportunity to do and voluntarily choose not to do (if the city was concerned that the test was disriminatory, it should have taken the opportunity at the appropriate time to have it professionally examined per the contract). Therefore, effecttively the test can be presumed to be non-discriminatory; 2) Kennedy may want to avoid the embarassment that any reasoning he gives in defense of the city could be understood as motivated by the same dog's breakfast of racist, emotionally-drivin logic displayed by Sotomayor.
I am Lugash.
Sotomayor sails through on an easy confirmation. No Republican has the spine to fight her.
Ricci loses. No idea why.
I am Lugash.
The Republican Party is completely owned by the same control group that owns the Democrats. The role of both parties is to usher in and secure the New America Revolution in a controlled non-violent fashion.
The core concept of the New America Revolution is that the traditional citizens of the country are demographically marginalized and then politically dispossessed of America -- and that they pay the tab for their own dispossession.
Vdare website chronicles this political process. On the other hand Steve Sailer frequently deletes posts that reveal the people behind this process. Funny that.
Two things in my gut-
1. Kennedy knows Ricci and the others were screwed by an AA system that has run amok.
He knows that to decide against Ricci would define him forever as a Constitutional sell-out, a judicial hack, something he doesn't want.
2. However, Kennedy doesn't want to be the justice that "overthrows" AA so he's in a bind.
Thus, I agree with the others that the decision will be for Ricci, in a narrowly worded way--unfortunately.
Kennedy has no guts.
Wouldn't it be something if Souter surprised us all as his going-away gift? He could really make a name for himself, couldn't he?
I'm going out on a limb and predict 7-2 to overturn. Souter and Breyer will concur on remanding, basically to determine if there is sufficient evidence in favor of the test's objectivity to require a trial. Scalia, Thomas, Alito and Roberts will concur, but vote to overturn the "disparate impact" rule altogether. Kennedy's concurring opinion will be the prevailing one, which will argue for a convoluted set of standards as to when and how disparate impact tests should and should not preempt any other considerations, which rules will somehow clearly favor Ricci et al but somehow not too clearly favor anyone else.
The NYT will then point out how this opinion only buttresses Sotomayor's "mainstream" credentials and further demonstrates her thoughtful and reserved jurisprudence.
Vdare website chronicles this political process. On the other hand Steve Sailer frequently deletes posts that reveal the people behind this process. Funny that.
Why don't get your own blog, Enonimouse?
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