May 23, 2011

What's wrong with AEI portrait of minority mortgage meltdown?

Other than not mentioning word minority?

See my new VDARE.com column.

By Steve Sailer on 5/23/2011 Labels: ,

27 comments:

TH said...

It seems that the European financial crisis was also caused by the political elite's blindness towards cultural or perhaps even racial heterogeneity. The eurozone was optimized for no-nonsense and frugal nations, generally Protestant and/or Germanic, but profligate and irresponsible Catholic and/or Latin nations were also accepted as members of the currency union, which was the root cause of all the trouble.

It is also suggestive that the three European nations whose economies have tanked the worst, Greece, Portugal and Ireland, have the following mean IQs according to Richard Lynn:

Greece 92
Portugal 95
Ireland 92

The European average is 100.

5/23/11, 8:43 AM
Anonymous said...

Right you are Steve.

Another aspect of the MMM seldom mentioned is the absolutely enormous ramifications and repercussions this catstrophe had on the rest of the world.Like every else King George II touched, the mortgage market turned to shit, as an amateur believer in astrology, superstition etc, I believe he man was jinxed - any horse-gambler can tell you all about jinxes : )
Anyway, back to the serious business in hand.Nations as diverse as Ireland and Greece are quite frankly f*cked.Ireland which was doing so well prior to MMM is now a basket-case.Greece is on the verge of civil insurrection.Britain is a financial train-wreck.It is exccedingly likely that the Euro currency will crash and burn, bringing the whole EU shebang down with it - basically it's screwed and the politicos can't do a damn thing about it.Likewise the whole financial system of the USA has been exposed as a bag of shite.
- And things wer going 'so well' 6 or 7 years ago 'the great moderation!' trilled the WSj and The Economist, the 'NICE decade' the sang in a self congratulating orgy about how clever they were and how well their brand of shit conned so many dumb-f*ck politicians.And all exposed as nothing more than piss and wind, piss and wind, and of course that great American staple, the tragedy and hubris of the USA, minorities and hair-shirt pleading and grovelling to minorities by a load of pompous, self-effacing and competitively altruistic snobs was the cause of it all!
Just think the very first minority caused/diversity recession - a feat that already outshines the 30s depression and threatens to take down the whole world in flames with it - and 33% 'minority' USA has just only sarted going down that path of fun and games and 'entitlement ' and 'empowerment' centered policies, somehow combined with massive low wage, low prodctivity Brazil Del Norte immigration that doesn't lay any golden eggs.Interesting times.
Another interesting thing, HBD aware China has hardly been scathed by the MMM clusterf*ck and has grown at trend 10% per annum rate throughout the debacle, so they'll be number one, economically speaking, a sight sooner than expected.Even now as some assert.Meanwhile, putative Brazil-del-Norte has had a good few points permantly knocked off GDP and a prermanently hobbled growth rate.
Expect even more immigration and more entitlement programs rammed through by the ethnic caucuses and their snob handlers in Congress.

5/23/11, 8:56 AM
Gene Berman said...

Steve:

I'd only add that there's one other factor not normally considered causative but which I believe needs to be recognized in that light: the bailout by Bush the First of S & L depositors at the expense of the taxpaying general public. It'[s right "up there" insofar is concerned the increase in "moral hazaed."

5/23/11, 8:59 AM
Wandrin said...

Some of them must know what they're doing which means it's deliberate - another crash, another bailout.

5/23/11, 9:41 AM
Anonymous said...

u know, Steve Sailer seems to have contradictory beliefs about Barack Obama, he wrote a book seemingly to accuse Obama of being a "race-man," only out to help the brothas.....
yet, Sailer also saids that Obama has no alliegaiances to any person or group, only himself
that he is the self-promoter in chief.
i'm going to have to email him and ask what his deal is, cuz he's saying contradictory things.

5/23/11, 10:06 AM
RKU said...

Well, the newspapers had a chart a few days ago showing the current delinquency/foreclosure rates for the worst-hit states. Florida was #1 but I think CA was down around #8 or #10, with the both Illinois and New Jersey being in much, much worse shape.

Don't know what that does to the ole' "Sand State" theory...

5/23/11, 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...

Pointed contrast between the “no more Pearl Harbors” vigilance against surprise attack versus the “Thank you sir, may I please have another” approach to the relaxation of credit standards on behalf of NAM’s. Of course, the former was a policy focused on a general national interest against foreign attack, the latter, another in the seemingly endless series of transfers of wealth, job opportunities, educational opportunities, etc. from whites to the Democratic Party’s nonwhite constituency.
As to the Republican Party’s failure to forthrightly stand up for the interests of its white constituency, as much as we like to blame craven politicians, I am afraid it goes much deeper than that. Granted, the politicos are media-whipped. However, by and large, if the political “market” demanded that they do so, they would. Politicians in the Jim Crow South certainly did. Put me down as a subscriber to the belief that white ethnic interests have been denied, suppressed, and even pathologized to the point where the majority of whites would find a naked appeal to their interest off-putting. What I really wish is that we had some “conviction” politicians who would cynically work within this admittedly adverse cultural framework on behalf of whites. Yeah, the MSM, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the anti-white left, would constantly be howling about “dog whistles”. Still, I think it could be done. Sadly, I don’t think it will be.

5/23/11, 10:35 AM
Anonymous said...

The attribution of the failure to attribute economic problems to NAMs is, itself, not specific enough:

An Ethnic Elite has created a situation in which it is impossible to talk about racial demographics in academia and media for the simple reason that they don’t want to be put under a fair and balanced empirical scrutiny.

Once again these Ethnic Elite advisors — court toadies — mislead the populace whose interests the elites themselves self-deceptively thought they were fairly representing while they were, in fact, selling them out for an opiate experience of concentrated wealth serving little more than the evolved virulence of the Ethnic Elite.

5/23/11, 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...

I look back on the Bush years with a kind of grotesque fascination. Climbing over eight years of mountainous policy wreckage, we arrive at his election to his first term. More than anything, that election was a perfect exemplar of our marketing image-driven Presidential politics. Take a spoiled, lazy, rich fellow who probably never read a book he didn’t have to. One who thought short and shallow on any matters of national import, and one whose knowledge base on just about any subject other than baseball is likely abysmal (he didn’t know Shiite from Shia on the eve of his invasion of Iraq). Start with maybe a 120 IQ, pickle in alcohol for twenty years. Throw in a life of utter non-accomplishment, driving several companies into the ground before finding “success” in a position handed to him as a front-man for a baseball team. New England family background, holding moderately liberal political views. Incredibly stubborn and pig-headed after making snap decisions, (in fairness, how can you rethink when you never really “thought” in the first place?). Finally got some political traction off of his family brand name. Job experience in a weak political executive position in Texas.

Hand these unpromising ingredients to Karl Rove and BAM! This lifelong resident of mansions, elite prep school dorms, and family compounds suddenly acquires a non-functioning “ranch” right before the Presidential election. The wardrobe department switches out the button-downs and khakis for jeans and plaid. Accessorize with cowboy hat and pick up truck. And now for the compelling personal narrative marketing hook: prodigal son returns after wandering twenty years in the alcoholic wilderness and finds Jebus.

The big box church goers are enthralled. Incredibly, this arrogant, liberal, elitist to the core, establishment screw-off is seen by a substantial segment of the blue collar/middle class Republican electorate as “one of us”. The biggest joke of all is that most political marketing is directed at misleading the apolitical middle into swinging the election towards one hard core political pole or the other. In Bush’s case, it was all about misleading the Republican base to support someone who worked ceaselessly against their interest on just about every level, including race and economics. In return, Bush didn’t even give them a tissue to wipe his spit from their faces.

5/23/11, 10:56 AM
agnostic said...

The GOP sell-out isn't a feature just of the Obama era. As you mentioned, Brimelow's exploding of the anti-redlining nonsense got no applause in 1993. And the Community Reinvestment Act didn't get any real funding until the mid-'90s -- when those supposedly Super-Republicans enjoyed a landslide victory in Congress.

Party divisions are usually very small at any point in time -- they're all slight variations on the themes of the same zeitgeist.

5/23/11, 11:46 AM
AllanF said...

It is true "leaders" haven't learned a thing. In fact, since the implosion the number of FHA loans have doubled.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-loan-type.html

Basically, as banks have foreclosed on their sub-prime borrowers they flip the house by relending to a new (the same?) set of sub-prime borrowers, except this time the loan is guaranteed by FHA instead of private MI.

The private MI's after going nearly bankrupt are fighting back against the banks in court by arguing the loans were fraudulent from the beginning.

Anyone want to wager what the change of FHA/govt fighting back in the same way when this second set of sub-prime borrowers skips out on making their payments? As a hint, back in January, quasi-public FNMA/FRE settled their lawsuit with Bank of America for, if memory serves, about 2 cents on the dollar.

5/23/11, 12:45 PM
jody said...

OT: justice department just filed an anti-trust lawsuit against H&R block.

so there you go. details available at whatever internet news source you prefer.

5/23/11, 2:19 PM
Anonymous said...

"The GOP sell-out isn't a feature just of the Obama era. As you mentioned, Brimelow's exploding of the anti-redlining nonsense got no applause in 1993."

Maybe it did but considering that conservatives control only 5% of the media and even less of the academia, few heard the applause.
Conservatives are like a body and some head with no mouth.

5/23/11, 2:21 PM
Anonymous said...

"OT: justice department just filed an anti-trust lawsuit against H&R block."

I kinda like and welcome this. What this country needs is another vast giant mega-bubble that will burst worst than the one in 2008. A total blow-out and collapse of the economy may finally radicalize the American people to wake up and do the right thing. It's like WWI laid the ground for revolution in Russia.
We need a mega-event, something that will force people to wake up. We need something more than a great recession. We need a great depression. So, I say let the banks print tons of more money and loan it out to everyone. I say let government keep spending money it doesn't have. Something's gotta give, and that opens the door to revolution. And don't worry about the debt. Once the revolution, the bankster robbers will all be in jail and we're gonna write off all the debts.

5/23/11, 2:25 PM
Anonymous said...

Dear RKU:

You do realize, don’t you, that nearly four years into the crisis, the problems have spread to the entire economy and not just the ground zero of the four sand states?


I trust that you might have heard something about 10% unemployment and that might have affected mortgage payments in Illinois and New Jersey. I’d also add that both Illinois and New Jersey are major immigration states, as well as states with large NAM populations.


Irving Kristol’s Ghost

5/23/11, 3:29 PM
Wandrin said...

"So, I say let the banks print tons of more money and loan it out to everyone. I say let government keep spending money it doesn't have. Something's gotta give, and that opens the door to revolution."

I'm inclined the same way except i'd prefer it if the groundwork was laid in advance ideally in the form of a white civil rights type movement which, when inevitably blocked, was big enough to bring everything down in a kind of controlled explosion and big enough to then bring it back up again in a more pro-white form.

A reboot.

5/23/11, 4:06 PM
Anonymous said...

Foreclosure filings by state, 2011 first quarter

Rank State Total # of filings 1/every # of households % change from Q4 2010 % change from Q1 2010
1 Nevada 32,066 35 -10.38 -7.21
2 Arizona 46,047 60 15.18 -17.31
3 California 168,543 80 -3.57 -22.07
4 Utah 9,680 98 -7.08 -10
5 Idaho 6,117 106 8.38 -3.53
6 Georgia 37,509 108 -3.59 -6.02
7 Michigan 37,506 121 -9.71 -17.99
8 Florida 58,322 152 -47.16 -62.02
9 Colorado 13,847 157 -11.91 -13.58
10 Illinois 33,092 160 -20.42 -27.72
11 Hawaii 2,564 201 -15.77 -21.97
12 Ohio 24,697 206 -22.66 -25.66
13 Wisconsin 11,776 220 -4.96 1.13
14 Washington 12,784 220 -10.1 40.11
15 Oregon 7,058 232 -20.75 -41.55
16 Arkansas 5,306 247 -2.16 -15.05
17 South Carolina 8,225 253 -14.05 -12.36
18 Texas 34,646 281 1.45 -7.25
19 Tennessee 9,777 284 27.57 -18.32
20 New Hampshire 2,099 286 10.71 -18.89
21 Delaware 1,331 298 -1.04 9.91
22 New Mexico 2,895 303 -16.14 -13.27
23 Missouri 8,783 305 -10.37 -3.27
24 Minnesota 7,539 309 -12 -18.18
25 Rhode Island 1,440 314 -3.36 -22.95
26 Virginia 10,323 323 -20.59 -28.97
27 Iowa 4,108 327 -0.29 141.79*
28 Indiana 8,377 335 -30.41 -36.62
29 Kansas 3,599 343 1.44 -12.11
30 Louisiana 5,275 372 10.8 34.39
31 Alaska 753 377 9.77 -17.88
32 Oklahoma 4,313 383 -11.44 -24.15
33 Alabama 5,570 392 -11.5 -14.91
34 New Jersey 8,795 401 -42.99 -43.6
35 Maryland 4,777 490 -20.17 -67.84
36 North Carolina 8,178 521 -27.18 -11.7
37 Pennsylvania 10,401 531 -35.49 -29.29
38 Massachusetts 5,008 549 -46.21 -61.83
39 Connecticut 2,476 584 -39.43 -64.58
40 Montana 736 600 -13 -17.95
41 Kentucky 2,921 662 -16.9 -4.17
42 Maine 899 784 -0.44 -19.8
43 New York 8,252 972 -10.75 -32.08
44 Wyoming 244 1,022 3.83 67.12*
45 Nebraska 699 1,133 -26.03 -32.66
46 Mississippi 1,083 1,184 -43.24 -19.96
47 South Dakota 272 1,344 -33.82 19.3
48 West Virginia 275 3,250 -36.93 24.43
49 North Dakota 75 4,219 -37.5 -48.28
50 Vermont 32 9,820 -31.91 -8.57
District of Columbia 63 4,526 -84.41 -87.6
-- U.S. 681,153 191 -14.76 -26.93

5/23/11, 4:12 PM
Anonymous said...

20 cities with highest foreclosure rates, 2011 first quarter


Rank Metro Total # of filings % Housing units 1/every # of households % change from Q4 2010 % change from Q1 2010

1 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 26,275 3.21 31 -11.54 -7.74
2 Modesto, CA 3,809 2.17 46 -9.52 -25.87
3 Stockton, CA 4,821 2.11 47 -7.2 -23.8
4 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 36,422 2.1 48 14.16 -19.42
5 Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 3,111 2.06 48 -5.53 -14.11
6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 29,859 2.04 49 -6.84 -27.17
7 Merced, CA 1,605 1.91 52 -11.18 -30.43
8 Reno-Sparks, NV 3,369 1.84 54 -5.66 -10.78
9 Bakersfield, CA 4,729 1.72 58 -17.35 -25.45
10 Fresno, CA 4,986 1.61 62 5.21 -7.51
11 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA 13,606 1.59 63 -10.94 -21.98
12 Visalia-Porterville, CA 2,091 1.5 67 -7.93 -14.69
13 Boise City-Nampa, ID 3,458 1.42 70 3.01 -10.58
14 Prescott, AZ 1,456 1.36 73 25.41 -9.79
15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 27,250 1.26 79 -4.13 -6.48
16 Salt Lake City, UT 4,907 1.22 82 -0.45 -4.81
17 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 3,340 1.22 82 -9.44 -15.06
18 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 4,248 1.16 86 -34.48 -58.74
19 Salinas, CA 1,616 1.15 87 2.34 -31.93
20 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 21,192 1.12 90 -9.58 -25.31

5/23/11, 4:41 PM
Anonymous said...

Steve, are you really sure Wallison does not understand the true cause? It seems more likely that he does but chose not to state it out of fear for his career. Still, I think he gets close enough to the truth that intelligent readers will see where the argument must inevitably go. That took a measure of courage, even if he did not have the courage to spell it out. You could even argue that making the point slyly like this is more effective, in that it will draw in without instantly repelling those are receptive to the argument but not yet liberated from PC.

5/23/11, 4:55 PM
jody said...

i do think the brainpower of the average person in greece and portugal do have an effect here. it's true they're not as smart, person for person, as the people in some of the other nations in europe. i also read that in portugal the people are less interested in school and the high school dropout rate is 40%. many people who can finish high school just decide to go do something else instead, which the government wants to change now.

however, being small is also a problem and limits the amount of large scale manufacturing they can do. without a mining operation, manufacturing is the only reliable way to build a serious economy. as far as i can tell, neither greece or portugal really manufactures anything.

the ireland situation is different i reckon. i think that IQ from lynn was correct 40 years ago but probably not right anymore. they're not all the way up to england brainpower level but they're not 10 IQ points lower anymore like they were for hundreds of years. like greece and portugal, ireland has a size problem, eliminating them from manufacturing. but most of their recent economic growth was intellectual in nature. they relied on entrepreneurial stuff. that takes smarts.

a good nation for reference here is spain, which rarely produces world leading science and engineering stuff, but still does OK for itself, with 40 million people and a good amount of land. they have industrial operations. they make cars, they mine oil. spain is next to france and italy, both of which sometimes deliver important new science and technology, so the contrast is stark between that and low key spain which chugs along quietly.

5/23/11, 6:38 PM
RKU said...

Irving Kristol’s Ghost: You do realize, don’t you, that nearly four years into the crisis, the problems have spread to the entire economy and not just the ground zero of the four sand states?

Well, certainly there's a time-lag factor, so CA is now on the recovery-swing while many of the other states are still in decline. But that's a little different than the theory that CA suffered from especially unique housing problems.

Just for fun, I googled "state foreclosure rates" and found a CNNMoney map from 2010/3Q which confirmed my recollection. Offhand, it looks like of the dozen or so biggest states, CA had already fallen to average or so in foreclosure rates by last Fall, being below IL, NJ, NY, IN, and OH, none of which seem to have much sand.

Actually, the peculiar thing is that while CA did have an enormous housing bubble---prices got ridiculous---many of these other states missed the Bubble. Having extremely high foreclosure rates *without* a preceeding Bubble seems the more interesting (and disturbing) scenario.

Meanwhile, the papers recently mentioned that many billions of "unexpected" tax revenue dollars have suddenly arrived in CA coffers, immediately cutting the state budget deficit by 1/3 or so, and meaning that the widely expected layoffs of teachers and other public employees may not need to happen after all. So while CA certainly does have economic problems, I just don't see these as being much worse than most other parts of the country.

5/23/11, 7:06 PM
jody said...

speaking of spain, i checked the 2010 car manufacturing report. on the list below, the number on the left is the number of new cars manufactured in that nation in 2010, in millions of cars:

14.0 china 1339 0.01
8.9 japan 127 0.07
7.8 US 311 0.02
5.7 germany 81 0.07
3.8 south korea 48 0.07
2.8 brazil 190 0.01
1.9 spain 46 0.04
1.9 france 63 0.03
1.3 mexico 112 0.01
1.1 canada 34 0.03
1.0 iran 75 0.01
1.0 UK 62 0.01
0.9 czech republic 10 0.09
0.9 thailand 67 0.01
0.8 poland 38 0.02
0.8 turkey 73 0.01
0.8 italy 60 0.01
0.7 russia 142 0.00
0.5 belgium 10 0.05

the center number is the national population, in millions. the right number is the number of cars produced per person. spain makes twice as many cars as the US, per capita. the czech republic is the world leader in car production per capita, under the skoda brand. spain produces mainly under the SEAT brand, which volkswagen owns.

between this and stuff like repsol and telefonica, spain does ok.

5/23/11, 7:51 PM
Truth said...

"i do think the brainpower of the average person in greece and portugal do have an effect here. it's true they're not as smart, person for person, as the people in some of the other nations in europe..."

But I thought that the Icelanders were the ultimate white people?

5/23/11, 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...

Passive aggressive ankle biter says:

"u know, Steve Sailer seems to have contradictory beliefs about Barack Obama, he wrote a book seemingly to accuse Obama of being a "race-man," only out to help the brothas.....
yet, Sailer also saids that Obama has no alliegaiances to any person or group, only himself
that he is the self-promoter in chief.
i'm going to have to email him and ask what his deal is, cuz he's saying contradictory things."

Those two things are not contradictory at all; please see Kevin MacDonald and others on the topic of "necessary/useful self-deception".

5/23/11, 9:21 PM
rjp said...

Great article Steve.

5/24/11, 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...

Dear RKU:
The increase in tax revenues is almost all due to capital gains. Income in California from capital gains alone is projected to rise from $34.9 billion in 2009 to $60.4 billion in 2011, according to Gov. Brown's revised budget. But that's less than half the $132 billion of capital gains reported in 2007, before the Great Recession, which saw such income and concomitant tax revenue reduced by more than two-thirds two years later.

Not sure where you get the idea that other states didn’t have a real estate bubble. They did.

Irving Kristol’s Ghost

5/24/11, 1:44 PM
ATBOTL said...

"I look back on the Bush years with a kind of grotesque fascination. Climbing over eight years of mountainous policy wreckage, we arrive at his election to his first term. More than anything, that election was a perfect exemplar of our marketing image-driven Presidential politics. Take a spoiled, lazy, rich fellow who probably never read a book he didn’t have to. One who thought short and shallow on any matters of national import, and one whose knowledge base on just about any subject other than baseball is likely abysmal (he didn’t know Shiite from Shia on the eve of his invasion of Iraq). Start with maybe a 120 IQ, pickle in alcohol for twenty years. Throw in a life of utter non-accomplishment, driving several companies into the ground before finding “success” in a position handed to him as a front-man for a baseball team. New England family background, holding moderately liberal political views. Incredibly stubborn and pig-headed after making snap decisions, (in fairness, how can you rethink when you never really “thought” in the first place?). Finally got some political traction off of his family brand name. Job experience in a weak political executive position in Texas.

Hand these unpromising ingredients to Karl Rove and BAM! This lifelong resident of mansions, elite prep school dorms, and family compounds suddenly acquires a non-functioning “ranch” right before the Presidential election. The wardrobe department switches out the button-downs and khakis for jeans and plaid. Accessorize with cowboy hat and pick up truck. And now for the compelling personal narrative marketing hook: prodigal son returns after wandering twenty years in the alcoholic wilderness and finds Jebus.

The big box church goers are enthralled. Incredibly, this arrogant, liberal, elitist to the core, establishment screw-off is seen by a substantial segment of the blue collar/middle class Republican electorate as “one of us”. The biggest joke of all is that most political marketing is directed at misleading the apolitical middle into swinging the election towards one hard core political pole or the other. In Bush’s case, it was all about misleading the Republican base to support someone who worked ceaselessly against their interest on just about every level, including race and economics. In return, Bush didn’t even give them a tissue to wipe his spit from their faces."

Great post. The whole Bush period was like a nightmare you couldn't wake up from for intelligent people. Conservative pundits still don't understand how badly Bush hurt their brand among the better educated sorts, even those who lean right.

5/24/11, 7:35 PM

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