Alternative history: First black President, 1985

I'm always struck by all the people claiming they had never believed before Obama was elected that there would ever be a black President in their lifetimes. Personally, though, in the summer of 1981, I dreamed up an unlikely but not utterly implausible series of events that would have made my boss's boss's boss the first black President.

In the summer of 1981, I had this odd summer job (remember those?) working for Mayor Bradley's Los Angeles-Africa Relations Commission. We organized an exhibition of Benin bronze sculptures at a big downtown museum that was popular, and, much less successfully, tried to stir up interest among L.A. business people in trade with Africa (not surprisingly, Asia was much more alluring to them). 

When I was asked by job interviewers what this project was really about, I'd reply that part of it was to do something nice for artsy and/or entrepreneurial blacks in L.A., whom Tom Bradley hadn't been doing a huge amount to please. (Blacks only made up about 15% of the population, so Bradley's highest priorities were A) to please liberal Jewish business interests on the Westside while B) not outraging whites in the San Fernando Valley: this moderate liberal strategy won him five elections from 1973-1989.) 

But, there was a more interesting aspect: Bradley, having just won his third term as mayor was looking to run for governor of California in 1982. If he won, becoming the first black governor since Reconstruction, and the governor of the largest state in the Union, he'd inevitably get his name mentioned as Vice Presidential Timber for the Democrats in 1984. A governor or senator of California is often a big deal nationally, going back to Nixon becoming Eisenhower's running mate in 1952. Reagan won two terms and Jerry Brown won Democratic primaries in three different years (1976, 1984, and 1992). 

But, Bradley had always been a local politician with local interests, with little to zero foreign affairs-related experience to make him a credible Veep candiate. So, this tiny L.A.-Africa commission was something that could be mentioned briefly in an article about Bradley as a Vice Presidential possibility in order to show that he wasn't just a pothole and zoning ordnance politician, that Bradley had Global Vision.

Here's roughly the chain of events, as I saw them in 1981, that could have made Tom Bradley President.

- Bradley is elected governor of California in 1982. (In the real world, Bradley famously lost narrowly. Bradley was leading George Deukmejian in the polls right up to election day  -- the "Bradley Effect" of voters being afraid to tell strangers they were going to vote for the white guy instead of the black guy. But, finally, when all the absentee ballots had been counted a few days after the polls closed -- frequent fliers tend to be Republicans -- Deukmejian had eked out what became a storied victory. Less excitingly, they had a rematch in 1986 and, with the economy booming, the Republican won easily.)

- Walter Mondale, looking for a non-traditional VP choice to demonstrate his Commitment to Diversity, picks the governor of California. (In the real world, Bradley was the first Veep possibility interviewed by Mondale in June 1984, but there's a big difference in Veep Timberhood between a mayor of Los Angeles and a governor of California. Mondale picked the fairly obscure Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman on the national ticket, to demonstrate his love of diversity.)

- The economy stays poor through 1984, hurting Reagan's re-election chances. (In the real world, it turned around a little under 2 years before the 1984 election.)

- Something I hadn't foreseen in 1981 was that Bradley as the Democrats' VP pick would have turned out to be an excellent choice because the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics became a huge success and launched a spontaneous wave of patriotism. (In the real world, Reagan benefited from Olympic Fever, but if Bradley had been on the ticket, he would have had a better claim because he was the man who brought the 1984 Olympics to America. In the late 1970s, Bradley had been the only mayor in the world with the audacity to want the Olympics. Bradley's claim to be the political architect of the 1984 Olympics would have helped defuse worries about a black Veep.)

- With the economy bad, and Bradley helping tilt California to the Democrats in the Electoral College, Mondale wins narrowly in 1984. (As you may recall, Mondale actually lost.)

- President Mondale drops dead for some reason and VP Tom Bradley is sworn in as the first black Chief Executive.

Okay, so none of that actually happened, but it's not crazy stuff. By the standards of alternative history, it's quite boring.

A more minimal version of this is that Bradley is elected governor of California in 1982, Mondale picks him as his running mate in 1984, and they lose like Mondale-Ferraro did in the real world. But in that world, where a black man had already been on a national ticket 24 years earlier, it's hard to see Obama being considered Presidential Timber.

The Republican almost had a black nominee in Colin Powell in 1996. In the fall of 1995 Powell was about even in the polls with Bob Dole, but he chose not to run.

What I hadn't expected in 1981 was the subsequent decline in the quality of black politicians. I had expected more cautious blacks like Bradley to come along, and one of them to make it to the top, but the 1982 Voting Rights Act and other factors pushed black officeholders on average in the direction of Marion Barry rather than Tom Bradley.

Oddly, this decline in black politician quality worked to the advantage of Obama. Despite his lack of accomplishments (relative to, say, Mayor Bradley: compare "I brought the Olympics to America" to "I helped get some asbestos partly removed"), Obama was presentable, and by 2004-2007 that was good enough to make him Presidential Timber.

My old articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer