From the NYT today:
Putin Orders a Surprise Army Exercise Near a Fragile Ukraine
By STEVEN LEE MYERS, RICK GLADSTONE and MICHAEL R. GORDON 1:10 PM ET
President Vladimir V. Putin’s move appeared to be a show of strength amid the unrest gripping Ukraine, and in response the Obama administration said any Russian military intervention in the country would be a “grave mistake.”
War game exercises are a way to semi-mobilize without announcing a mobilization. Back in July 1914, Russia's announcement of mobilization set off chain reactions that proved unstoppable. So announcing "army exercises" are a way to get your men in their tanks without announcing you are going to war. The good news is that war games can be called off. The bad news is that war games can turn into war.
I want to toot my own horn here by pointing out that my last four columns in Taki's Magazine serve as background behind today's worrisome news. I've had a bad feeling for some time about the hyping up of World War G that accelerated back in 2013. Back in December I wrote a blog post:
Thus, my February Taki's columns have been obsessed with exploring perspectives on European geopolitics:
I want to toot my own horn here by pointing out that my last four columns in Taki's Magazine serve as background behind today's worrisome news. I've had a bad feeling for some time about the hyping up of World War G that accelerated back in 2013. Back in December I wrote a blog post:
World War G and the Military-Industrial Complex
America's Global War of Terror has been a huge moneymaker for Washington's Beltway, but it's starting to get a little old. Looking to the future, why not a replay of a tried and true honeypot: an arms race with Russia? ...
But to justify lots more spending we need some reason to be angry at the Russians. They don't have 53,000 tanks pointed in the general direction of the Fulda Gap anymore, so the pretext isn't immediately obvious.
Good question ...
I know, gays!
And Ukrainians, although they're kind of boring ... Hey, there must be some Ukrainian gays! Somebody get to work on this pronto.
Thus, my February Taki's columns have been obsessed with exploring perspectives on European geopolitics:
World War III
February 05, 2014
With the 100th anniversary of World War I upcoming and old enmities between America and Russia resurging in contemporary form—for example, Glenn Beck recently said, “I will stand with GLAAD against…hetero-fascism” in Russia—due to the approach of that gayest of sporting events, the Winter Olympics, I thought it worth taking a look back at the war that didn’t happen: the one between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
So I dug out my battered copy of Sir John Hackett’s 1978 sci-fi novel, The Third World War: August 1985, which scared the hell out of me when I received it as a Christmas present on December 25, 1979, the day the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. ...
The Kremlin then dusts off its contingency plan to convert summer war games in East Germany into a full-scale invasion of West Germany.
The Borders of Empire
February 12, 2014
... And that short tour of Winter Olympics sites raises the seemingly abstract but politically fraught question: Where’s a good place to draw national borders?
One tempting answer is along major rivers. After all, if you glance at a map, you’ll notice that big rivers tend to be long and fairly linear, just like you hope your ideal border would be.
Moreover, wide rivers are more militarily defensible than flat land. That’s why Warsaw Pact contingency plans for invading Western Europe assumed that the Rhine had to be reached to forestall a NATO counteroffensive.
The peacetime political problem with using navigable rivers as borders, however, is that they frequently separate people who don’t want to be separated.
Nationalism Is a Blast
February 19, 2014
The Russians, lacking all natural defenses to the West, are sensitive to the proximity of hostile alliances. They believe, with much historical justification, that in February 1990 Secretary of State James Baker and West German leader Helmut Kohl promised Mikhail Gorbachev no Eastern expansion of the NATO military bloc in return for allowing the reunification of Germany by withdrawing the 380,000 Soviet troops from East Germany.
The West has repeatedly violated that gentleman’s agreement, in 2008 even putting Ukraine and Georgia on track for NATO membership. (Georgia’s subsequent invasion of Russian-held South Ossetia proved a major embarrassment, however.)
The US media’s ideological justifications for its anti-Russianism involve gay rights (”World War G”) and democracy (“World War D”). But those concepts don’t appear much in evidence in scenes from central Kiev, where the City Hall of the embattled pro-Russian government had been occupied since December by masked men swinging iron bars. ...
For example, when was the last tank-v.-tank battle? ...
The two countries that have the tanks, terrain, and mutual border to conceivably replay the Battle of Kursk are Russia (2,562 tanks in service and plenty more in reserve) and Ukraine (725 tanks running).
Conservatism in Russia and America
February 26, 2014
Similarities and differences between Russian and American conservatism—especially in regard to the topic of the moment, Ukraine—can be observed in the thought of Russian geopolitical theorist Aleksandr Dugin, director of the Center for Conservative Studies at Moscow State University. ...
After last week’s coup in Kiev, Dugin said in an interview on Russian state television:
I suggest that it is necessary that Russia, in an organized way, help Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
When asked by the interviewer what he meant by “an organized way,” Dugin replied, “with tanks.”
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42 comments:
Of course, if Putin installs a pre-op transgendered female president, then the West has nothing to complain about, I guess.
Going over the history of ww2, I'd say that there were fewer tank v tank battles than we have been lead to believe, even though the war was the peak of Armour v Armour clashes.
Generally the battles were either:
Airpower v tanks
Tanks v infantry+ forts/artillery
The Germans tended to over watch the battlefield with 88s and cook up any allied tanker stupid enough to peekaboo.
Once they rigged up the 88 into a chassis and some plate armour allied tanks sensibly tread their tracks very lightly unless opposed by nothing more than Machineguns.
Even Kursk, according to modern records looks as if it was tanks v forts in the north and tanks v forts plus infantry in the south. The Russian Armour was about as useful as a T88 vs Abrams.
So, did US pull out of Iraq and will pull out of Afghanistan to go after bigger fish?
This new Jack Ryan movie. Is it a coordinated attempt to vilify Russia?
But I just don't see any confrontation between US and Russia. Too much at stake. And will EU side with US over this? Another major war in European territory?
How will China react?
If this gets out of control, it's not gonna be good for US.
One thing for sure, Putin handled Ukraine badly by backing a fool simply because he was pro-Russian. Putin and Russia ignored all the legit anger among Ukies and figured they'd just give lots of money to their son of a bitch. Well, it looks like the son of a bitch let his cronies rob the country blind.
Best solution is to just divide the nation in two.
What EXACTLY does that "grave mistake" mean? I suspect it is just an empty threat from the man in the empty suit. What if 150,000 Russian troops entered east Ukraine and Crimea, areas thick with ethnic Russians. What is the U.S. actually going to do? Launch a 78 day bombing campaign against Russia like you did in 1999 with Serbia? Invade the country like you did with Iraq in 2003? Unlike little Serbia, Russia is quite capable of defending itself against the U.S. bully. Unlike Iraq, it REALLY DOES HAVE "weapons of mass destruction".
"Of course, if Putin installs a pre-op transgendered female president, then the West has nothing to complain about, I guess."
He should order the ousted president to wear a wig.
Glenn Beck - my hero! I can't wait for Glenn to lead the attack "over the top" against the massed Russian tanks and machine guns. On to Belgrade!
I don't know what will happen. And I hope there will be no more shooting in the Ukraine. But here's food for thought:
Putin knows that Obama is less enthusiastic about neocon foreign policy projects than either his predecessors or any of his (Obama's) likely successors. Obama is an aberration in that regard. If Putin concludes that something would have to be done sooner or later, wouldn't it make sense for him to do it sooner, i.e. now, while Obama is still in office? Hillary and whomever the GOP nominates next time would be more into what Steve calls "invade the world" than Obama is.
"One thing for sure, Putin handled Ukraine badly by backing a fool simply because he was pro-Russian."
You swallowed the line that Yanuk was Putin's puppet. He was not. He wasn't pro-Russia, he was pro-East Ukrainian oligarchs. In regards to Russia, he tried to play both sides. Putin secretly is as happy as anyone else that Yanuk is gone.
Jesus Christ, this is scary. Farcical, nonsensical, beating the "Dr. Strangelove" scenario in absurdity... but VERY possible.
Also, keep in mind how well the thieving of Russia went under the jolly drunk Yeltsin, until Putin and his crew took over the country.
Our, sorry, "our" elites hold grudges for thousands of years...
Somehow I simply cannot muster much interest in all this sound and fury. In the end, there will be no war, just a lot of empty posturing and a big increase in defense spending.
So the U.S. military-industrial complex is copying something from Michael
Moore's play book on the Russia thing? ;)
Speaking of World War G, raise your hand if you know India recently recriminalized homosexuality. Not a peep in the media (surprisingly, they are covering the homo situation in Uganda, probably in an attempt to save a little face since some people began to notice World War G was being used to sabre rattle against Russia). This is the world's second most populous country, mind you, having several times the population of old-and-gray Russia. If homos are the concern, surely India is big news. The media silence is deafening and telling.
In other news, something that would probably be right up Steve's alley: Montel Williams, that inveterate shyster, is planning to make 12 Years a Slave a permanent part of our collective memory by farming it out to public schools. Who says propaganda and grievance-mongering don't pay? Montel don't, but you have to give the man some begrudging credit for understanding his target audience and how the game works. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/21/nsba-12-years-a-slave-idUSnBw215806a+100+BSW20140221
"we want Edward Snowden back"
No war at least wrt US Steve. Obama has gutted the US military to the point it is only slightly more potent than France. Hence the US matters about as much as France.
No A1 Warthog. Only ten aircraft carriers. Army shrunk to pre WWII aka disarmed levels.
Obama hates US power so much he made us into disarmed non entity. Not very smsrt ... bad things hapen to the weak and no lobby money for him and the boys.
Anonymous:"(surprisingly, they are covering the homo situation in Uganda, probably in an attempt to save a little face since some people began to notice World War G was being used to sabre rattle against Russia).
Aren't they blaming Uganda on White Christian fundies?
Whiskey:"No war at least wrt US Steve. Obama has gutted the US military to the point it is only slightly more potent than France. Hence the US matters about as much as France."
No war because Russia has nukes. Try to think rationally,Whiskey.
Look at how rotten the West's latest strategic thinking is.
To defeat an enemy, first call it a bunch of names. "Homophobic!" "Racist!" Since "the moral is the practical," this step is supposed to knock the wind out of the sails of the enemy, make him unsure of himself, and get a forfeit.
What? He didn't capitulate? He ACTUALLY SAID, "Keep your hands off the children"? Okay, Plan B: let slip the outside agitators of war. They can find some regional division and exacerbate it to the breaking point. Their shock troops can do some "protest disrobing," some pussy rioting, some boycotting, and posture as fighters 4 "liberty" & "Democracy!" (even though they end up enthroning the Muslim Brotherhood, the ANC, etc.). Sympathetic full-spectrum coverage in Western media ices the cake.
This is the strategy that's supposed to work against a nuclear giant, Russia. It's like KMac's culture-critiquers have wholly taken over Western foreign policy.
This decline is precipitous. In 2003 it was "weapons of mass destruction" (which fooled a lot of reasonable people). Now it's "they don't like men who wear dresses!!"
At the risk of sounding like Chrissie Hynde, I hope Russia kicks their asses.
It's hilarious watching Susan Rice threaten Russia. I wonder how much the guys in Moscow are laughing at us right now.
"let slip the outside agitators of war. They can find some regional division and exacerbate it to the breaking point."
There was a Jewish hand in this, but there were also conditions that were ripe for something like this to happen.
If Putin is smart, he will learn from this. He has a mini-me in Chechnya, and that seems to work somewhat--as who the hell wants to deal with Chechnya? But Putin has to be smarter with places like Ukraine where the politics, culture, and geography are far more delicate and complicated. Putin backed some corrupt son of a bitch who was rightfully despised by many Ukrainians--though the alternatives are hardly better, as politicians are tools of the oligarchs.
Ukraine would be better off with a smart strongman like Putin, but it's harder to pull that off in Ukraine since it's divided so much between Ukies and Russkies, between westernites and easternites. There is no majoritarian-unified sense of Ukrainianness like there is for Russianness. Though Russia is diverse--and even ethnic Russians can be different from one another--, there is a powerful sense of Russianness.
Ukraine never had a cultural or historical center. It's a national identity created out of peripherality. Periphery of Poland/Lithuania, periphery of Russia, periphery of Tatar empire, periphery of Caucasus raiders. Thus, instead of creating a sense of Ukrainianness wholly unto itself, Ukies tend to lean this way or that way, as if Ukrainianness has little meaning unless it is attached to something other: Poland, Russia, Lithuania, etc. Notice how the Ukrainian right rips off so much from other right-wing movements.
Another reason why Putin doesn't want a Putin-like leader in Ukraine--if such were possible--is because Putinism is willful and unpredictable. After all, the oligarchs didn't predict Putin's move in the 2000s, just like Jewish communists failed to predict Stalin's maneuverings to gain power over them.
Just as Stalin didn't like Tito and Mao--who were willful and independent-minded--, Putin doesn't want another Putin-like figure in Ukraine. So, he supported some third-rate politico who was more like the lazy and stupid Yeltsin. Someone easier to handle. But third-raters like Yanukobitch and Batista are bad news. You end up with egg on your face.
"Putin secretly is as happy as anyone else that Yanuk is gone."
I didn't say Yanuk was Putin's puppet.
Whatever Putin felt about Yanuk, he saw him as the best bet, showering him with lots of dough and trade favors.
I just hope that crazy nation breaks up. It's so ridiculous.
David:"To defeat an enemy, first call it a bunch of names. "Homophobic!" "Racist!"
Wasn't this Putin's strategy in Ukraine, calling the anti-Russian forces Nazis?
David:"This decline is precipitous. In 2003 it was "weapons of mass destruction" (which fooled a lot of reasonable people). Now it's "they don't like men who wear dresses!!"
Don't see how the WMD line would have worked vis-a-vis the Russians, seeing as how everyone already knows that they have lots and lots of nukes....
"Mr. Yatsenyuk, by contrast, is largely viewed as an able technician with a firm grasp of economic policy and foreign affairs. "
By whom?
"Speaking of World War G, raise your hand if you know India recently recriminalized homosexuality. Not a peep in the media."
It was covered but lost 'traction'.
Jews know they don't have a chance of taking over India and have no roots there.
But many American Jews have deep roots in Russia. Most Jews I've known are Jews with Russian roots. So, Jews look at Russia with mix of vengeful hostility and longing to reclaim the Jewish-motherland. There are lots of Jews with mixed Russian blood in America, especially the emigre community that left since the 80s.
So, there is a Jewish mind-set that seeks to 'reclaim' Russia. Jews feel they should and can own it. Heck, if Jews took US from the once mighty wasps, they are thinking it's eventually doable in Russia too, the land of drunken table dancers who wrestle with bears.
Russian tends to be muscleheads than mentalheads.
Of course, part of Hitler's design on Russia was similar to that of Jews. There was a time, especially in the 19th century, when the Russian economic, political, and military institutions were being dominated by Germans. Germans trained and created the new Russian military. Germans ran much of the business of the empire. Germans ran much of the government. So, Germans thought they would play a huge role in Russia. But then, things got bad and WWI came along and etc. Hitler grew up reading about how Germans had once been major players in Russia but lost out due to WWI and the commie revolution. He sought to reclaim German control in Russia.
After WWII, Germans gave up on any dream of controlling Russia. Jews never lost this dream.
I mean when 1.7% of the population of America takes power from wasps( the mightiest empire builders of all time) in a few decades, what can't Jews do?
And indeed if not for Putin, Jews might have gained total control of Russia. The oligarchs were buying up everything, the media too. But it just slipped out of their lands. It was so close.
Just as Anglo-Americans, after settling the West, had to hit the seas to look for more empire--and just like the British, after taking India, Australia, and Africa, had to strike out and take China as well--, Jews are insatiable in their appetite. They have the US and UK. They pretty much control EU. And controlling US means control Japan and Korea and Taiwan as well.
Poland is sucking up to Jewish power. So, Ukraine is the bridge to Russia. Russia, for all its show of nationalism, is vulnerable because it's so corrupt, lazy, and childish. Jews know it.
But then white Americans are a stupid bunch too. I mean you have to wonder about a people who, in a few decades, are won over to 'gay marriage' and mindless interracism with Negroes and go wee wee in their pants over 12 Yrs a Bro.
Poke the Russian bear in the eye in its own backyard--and then announce a massive troop drawdown. Unparalleled strategic thinking, there.
"""""Army shrunk to pre WWII aka disarmed levels.""""
The US Army at the beginning of 1940 had 267,000 personnel and that included the Army Airforce. Cutting it to 450,000 does not lower to early 1940 numbers, especially if you add in the 300,000 Airforce personnel
What they are comparing too is the Dec 1940 US Army numbers which were 1,400,000. The US had called up the Army Reserve, National Guard and started the draft in Sept 1940 so yes the present US Army and Airforce are smaller then mobilized Army in late 1940 but its been smaller for years
The combined US Army US Airforce has not been 1,400,000 since before 1975
12 years a bro. LOL!
i think it's pretty clear that under obama, the US won't do anything military unless somebody else makes a move first. france or the UK is NOT going to make the first move against russia, so obama won't be able to do his usual leading from behind thing.
basically the russians can just do whatever they want in ukraine. nobody is going to stop them. if i was putin i'd just roll in the tanks right now.
Somehow I simply cannot muster much interest in all this sound and fury. In the end, there will be no war, just a lot of empty posturing and a big increase in defense spending.
I agree with that except for the defense spending. The welfare state is eating the US military, and That will not change without the advent of a bona fide shooting war. A real one - not Iraq or A-stan.
We're going down the same road the Brits went down - it won't be too many years before we lose any sort of military influence in the far east or north Atlantic. Two decades on the outside. Maybe not even one.
Looks like capitalist Jews forgave commie Jews totally whereas capitalist white Americans still gripe about formerly communist white Russians
No what happened was the early high level of Jewish involvement in Russian communism slowly sputtered out to be replaced by active hostility to Jews. On the other hand "white" Russians have kept being the surly American hating conspiracy mongering louts that we came to rightful hate during the Cold War. Never has the loser of a global conflict had less humiliation and negative consequences heaped on them than did Russia.
I think we should start the draft back up.
The Ukraine is not going to like IMF help.
What are the prospects of a combined China & Russian military endeavor? China launches an offensive against Japan & Taiwan while Russia goes after Ukraine.
Would the US military be in a position to stop it? Would the home front support?
What are the prospects of a combined China & Russian military endeavor? China launches an offensive against Japan & Taiwan while Russia goes after Ukraine.
Japan would hand China its ass if the scenario was an attack on the home islands even without our help. The Japanese "maritime self defense force" is stronger than the Chinese navy unless the battle takes place right off the coast of China where the Chinese can employ short range patrol boats and land based aircraft.
A decade from now? Who knows. By then China will be operating three carriers.
Steve, forive me for the lecture, but I think you've got your eye off the ball with your thread that this crisis is primarily about milquetoast/'gay rights' Democrat Party neoconnery, whilst ignoring the real troublemaker here - namely the EU, but I suppose Americo-centric thinking is a hard habit to shake off.
It is the EU, not the USA, which is acting like an empire-building power-bloc - basically, the EU is an aggressively expansionary state and is seeking the opportunity of a power/land grab in a region that has traditionally been thought of as 'off-limits'. Not only are the eurocrats dumb, they are arrogant and aggressive - they seem to think that have the 'right' to perform this land-grab and no one can stop them. Getting back to the 19th century theme, they remind me more and more of the Prussian generals and the expansion of Prussia into the modern German state in the 19th century and lest we forget all the 'judicious' wars with neighboring states Prussia fought in order to consolidate its 'dominance' of the continent.
That's the right word 'dominance', the eurocrats see themselves as the 'dominators' of Europe and all must bend before their will. In this light it must be seen that the Russians are meely playing a reactive, defensive game.
"Montel Williams, that inveterate shyster, is planning to make 12 Years a Slave a permanent part of our collective memory by farming it out to public schools."
Cue a tsunami of anti-white violence in white minority schools.
Anonydroid at 6:58 PM said: This drooling Putin fanboyism is hilarious.
Hunsdon said: I've noticed this repeated meme: Putin worship, Putin fellatio, Putin fanboyism. However, those are all accusations I hear. I've never read a conservative commentator who described a tingle going up his leg at the sight of Putin.
Padraigh Bucanon (Whiskey, help me spell!) has been cautiously optimistic, but nothing like the accusations I keep hearing.
Perhaps I am willfully blind.
"It is the EU, not the USA, which is acting like an empire-building power-bloc"
The EU is in terminal decline, both economically and demographically. They know that in ten years time they won't have the power to force anyone to do anything, which is why the fracas in Ukraine and to a lesser extent Belarus and Hungary is so important to them.
They're trying to carve out a niche being the world's "moral superpower".
"What are the prospects of a combined China & Russian military endeavor? China launches an offensive against Japan & Taiwan while Russia goes after Ukraine. Would the US military be in a position to stop it?"
i believe the US is obligated to try to stop that from happening to japan. although japan can probably stop a less than 100% attack from china. for now. in 10 years, maybe not. in 20 years, definitely not. japan would fall to an all out attack from china today, and would have to be saved by the US. of course you're looking at a world war 3 scenario there.
i don't see how the US could do anything about ukraine though. not only is there no political obligation, they could not do anything without initiating the opening stages of yet another world war 3 scenario. the united states cannot apply any political or economic pressure to russia. it's direct military threat or nothing here.
these are pretty different scenarios though. invading japan is so much different than invading ukraine. nobody cares that much about ukraine. the US and EU can afford to let it fall. what's so important about ukraine? they'd prefer not to see ukraine fall to russia if they can avoid it, but ukraine is NOT worth direct military engagement. in fact i think russia could steadily take over some small nations in eastern europe within 10 years with little US response. EU will barely be able to respond at all in 10 years.
for china, taiwan would be a more likely intermediate target. higher on the 'we're having a war over this, period' scale than say mongolia, but below japan. the US can, again, afford to watch taiwan fall. it prefers not to, but would probably allow that to happen instead of world war 3. the philippines would probably be the next step up. china invading there is a 50/50 world war 3 scenario i would say.
the US would draw the line at australia or japan. that's immediate war world 3, period, just on principle. cost benefit ratio will be ignored. the missiles would fly.
"It is the EU, not the USA, which is acting like an empire-building power-bloc - basically, the EU is an aggressively expansionary state and is seeking the opportunity of a power/land grab in a region that has traditionally been thought of as 'off-limits'."
I think this was largely true originally but the Nulandettes jumped on the back of the EU move to get a cousin and made man of the banking mafia the top job instead of the EU's preferred candidate.
This ought to give Putin the opportunity to detach the nationalist types from the EU/US coalition.
Jody said;
"Japan would fall to an all-out attack from China today".
No it would not. China has no naval capacity to speak of and no means to get vast numbers of troops, weapons and supplies across the sea into Japan. Its no mean feat to invade an island. Hitler, with vastly better armed forces, couldn't do it to much closer England.
"No it would not."
which country has ICBMs and which does not?
after china turns the important parts of japan into glass, they can paddle over in rafts if they'd like.
what's the delivery time for MIRVs from china to japan. 12 minutes? surprise. you're dead.
Never has the loser of a global conflict had less humiliation and negative consequences heaped on them than did Russia.
Their women murdered their own children to the average tune of 7 to 8 per woman. If the self-destruction of your population isn't negative enough, sheesh.
TO Jody said:
Right. Turning Japan into a radioactive wasteland benefits China how exactly?
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