Russia said unidentified gunmen sent by Kiev had attempted overnight to seize the Crimea region's Interior Ministry offices and that people had been wounded in the attack. It accused Kiev of a "treacherous provocation."
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29 comments:
I doubt if Ukraine, or at least those currently ruling western Ukraine are capable of a "war" with Russia. The risk & it is clearly a serious one, is if NATO decide to help them.
This seems very similar to Georgia 2008. Russia builds up its forces inside a neighbouring country, backs local groups to attack the government forces and then claim that a response is an unprovoked assault.
Yup. Lest we forget that it was Germany's and the EU's precipitate recognition of Slovenian independence that sparked off the Yugoslav wars that so blemished the 1990s.
Also this is the hundreth anniversary of certain events in Sarajevo that once the big players got their paws on it opened, literally the Gates of Hell.
A good start would be for the EU to unilaterally renounce all claims on the Ukraine, as a good will gesture. Likewise Russia should declare respect for Ukranian independence.
Another point, don't Ukrainians realise that the inevitable future of the EU is black and brown? Is that what they really want for their country?
Any move to extend the protection of NATO to Ukraine would not prevent, but rather cause, a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia.
"I doubt if Ukraine, or at least those currently ruling western Ukraine are capable of a "war" with Russia."
By themselves they wouldn't have been capable of seizing power in Kiev either. I think that Soros's and the US government's money and organizational talent were crucial. Galicia isn't just small, it's also the poorest, most rural part of the Ukraine. It's the West Virginia of the Russia-Ukraine-Belarus region. The mountains, the poverty, the weird, incomprehensible dialect. These yokels wouldn't have been able to organize all of THAT on their own.
"This probably won't amount to much (I hope)"
Umm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
"Lest we forget that it was Germany's and the EU's precipitate recognition of Slovenian independence that sparked off the Yugoslav wars"
quite. the EU is as incompetent as it is malign.
(the EU is partly just a figleaf created and used used by the various national political elites to exercise power without getting the blame and so is staffed by the B team)
Galicia isn't just small, it's also the poorest, most rural part of the Ukraine. It's the West Virginia of the Russia-Ukraine-Belarus region.
Hardly. Galicians are the only people in Ukraine with any sense of a national tradition or culture. The average cultural level in Galicia is far higher than anywhere in Ukraine outside of Kiev. The rest of Ukraine is just Sovok. It is very obvious when you spend time in Ukraine which parts were Polish and which parts were Russian.
Another point, don't Ukrainians realise that the inevitable future of the EU is black and brown? Is that what they really want for their country?
People who don't know what it actually means to live in a neighborhood full of NAMS have no clue. The only EU and US citizens they meet in Kiev are well-educated whites, with a rare well-educated brown and black once in a while. All they know about Europe and the USA is what they see on TV: wealthy, happy places where non-whites are few and likable. Go figure...
Hell. I am starting to feel like Lindbergh: what does this have to do with us? What are those guys ginning up in Washington? Why are they trying to start a new war? To what end?
Are we too late to start an America First movement?
I get the feeling they are trying to get Putin to something--anything--they can label as a provocation so they can start a war.
Fortunately there are enough common-sense, midwestern gentiles left in the military that they are going to caution restraint ... I hope.
"Are we too late to start an America First movement?"
That would actually be a great idea.
"Galicians are the only people in Ukraine with any sense of a national tradition or culture."
They have a greater sense of identity than other Ukrainians.
"The average cultural level in Galicia is far higher than anywhere in Ukraine outside of Kiev."
This is false. Galicia is poorer than the center or the east (just look up the stats). It's more rural. Its sense of cohesion comes from backwardness. Unfortunately modernity atomizes. The past was more cohesive. Backwardness correlates with cohesion. It doesn't have to be that way. I wish it wasn't. I would guess that in a country like Japan the intelligentsia is as nationalist as the yokels. And good for Japan. I wish Europe was like that too. It once was. But everywhere in the Western world today cohesion correlates with backwardness.
Galicia is the West Virginia of the Russia/Ukraine/Belarus world.
Hell. I am starting to feel like Lindbergh: what does this have to do with us?
No kidding. If we'll fight over Ukraine, is there any piece of soil in the world that we wouldn't fight over? Some ice-covered island off the coast of Antarctica, perhaps?
There's no significant Ukrainian-American community that might prompt us to go fight for their homeland. There's no oil or trading interest there. No strategic military reason we'd want to hold influence there. The only export they have is hot girls who want husbands, and they're the only immigrants our government doesn't love. The only possible interest we seem to have is wanting to take a poke at Russia, which seems about 30 years too late.
A century ago, certainly two centuries ago, Americans wouldn't even have known any of this was happening, and now it's so critical to us that we might need to get involved? It's bizarre.
I had a relook at Huntingtons "Clash of Civilizations", in it he talks about how Ukraine is the divide between the West and Eastern Orthodox and could be a future conflict area.
More ominously he talks about how a war that involved Europe, Russia and China would end up leaving all three broken and that the global south (Africa, India, Middle East) would pick up the pieces and dominate those regions.
Another point, don't Ukrainians realise that the inevitable future of the EU is black and brown? Is that what they really want for their country?
Western Ukrainians don't actually consider Russians to be "white" in the first place. You can scoff (and geneticists would disagree) but the nationalists really think that way. They will tell you that Russians are really Mongols and Tatars with a little European blood mixed in. This is probably something the nationalists picked up from the Nazis.
Fait accompli: Russia occupies the Crimea, only a day after after faking out the U.S. that it wouldn't do it.
Man, American response to foreign military crises have not looked good in many years. In the latest, Obama was an absolute idiot to finger-wag at Russia to stay out or there will be "consequences". Don't draw red-lines if you don't have the means or the will to enforce them!
"Hardly. Galicians are the only people in Ukraine with any sense of a national tradition or culture. The average cultural level in Galicia is far higher than anywhere in Ukraine outside of Kiev. The rest of Ukraine is just Sovok. It is very obvious when you spend time in Ukraine which parts were Polish and which parts were Russian."
Yes, but the Banderovtsi massacred the Polish elite.
"This seems very similar to Georgia 2008. Russia builds up its forces inside a neighbouring country, backs local groups to attack the government forces and then claim that a response is an unprovoked assault."
Pretty sure it was the US and the EU who were funding local groups to attacks the legitimate and elected government of that country.
Obama knows he and his team were unprepared and can't do much.
If you look at the morning headlines, you can already see JournOList coalescing around a soothingly bland spin to help Obama save face: "Russian lawmakers OK use of troops in Ukraine" (USA Today) "Russian parliament allows Russian President Vladimir Putin to use military in Ukraine" (AP).
Obama will issue some vague sanctions and pivot us back to the #WarOnWomen ASAP.
Putin requested the Parliament allow him to intervene militarily in the Ukraine and the upper chamber unanimously voted to support him in this.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-why-and-what-next
Above, TNR's hot Jewish emigre Russia beat writer melts down. I'm enjoying this.
No this is about killing Ukraines nat gas alternative to Russia *****and***** the for Putin dangerous precedent of street protests dumping corrupt leaders. Much as Putin really hates Yanukovich he's cornered into restoring a inept kleptocrat.
What scares Putin is the thought of his palaces being overrun by a mob.
Of course the real danger is Putin extending this to the Baltics, Poland Hungary, Romania, Czech and Slovak Republics and Eastern Germany.
Looks like that long holiday from lots of defense spending and outsourcing nukes to the US is over. I expect Poland for sure to nuke up as quick as possible to avoid being Ukrainized.
Uh, so, random thought:
Democrats are set to lose the midterms. Now, it's possible that they talk more about rape as a contraceptive and lose, but they're certain to keep the house and look like they'll win the Senate. Obama's last two years would be even less fun.
What do you do when you can't get anything done domestically and need to win an election? You start a war. Now, it's Russia we're talking about so probably cooler heads will prevail, but...
Fodder for the anti-semites here: Jewish billionaire oligarch and dual citizen of Israel Igor Kolomoisky has been appointed governor of Dniepropetrovsk. He is calling on Ukrainians to defend the homeland from Russians.
Cail Corishev said...
"The only possible interest we have is in wanting to take a poke at Russia.."
Exactly. The tribe controls our government and foreign policy. And they have a deep dislike of Russia.
Anyone else happy that Romney isn't president at this moment? He had this weird desire to antagonize Russia over things that don't matter to us. Really a McCain-lite on this issue.
Galicia is poorer than the center or the east (just look up the stats).
I've spent a lot of time all over Ukraine. Galicia is poorer because the Center wants it that way. I challenge you to spend time in places like Zhitomir, Kherson, or Cherkasy and then conclude that Galicia is the backward region of Ukraine.
Rural isn't always bad - the advantage of Galicia is that they had private farms under the Habsburgs and under the Poles, and only 2 generations of Soviet power. There is still a tradition of real rural self-sufficiency and the independence that comes from being a land owner that you won't find in the rest of Ukraine. That is the sense in which Galicia is still closer to Poland or Germany than it is to Eastern Ukraine, Russia or Romania.
"Cail Corishev said...
Hell. I am starting to feel like Lindbergh: what does this have to do with us?
No kidding. If we'll fight over Ukraine, is there any piece of soil in the world that we wouldn't fight over? Some ice-covered island off the coast of Antarctica, perhaps?"
We are all Kerguelen Islanders!
" what does this have to do with us?" - the only thing it has to do with us is the agreement we made in 1994 to get them to give up their nukes. had we not bothered in the first place, that would have been for the best. Now we've got a bunch of bad choices in front of us.
That's a good point though I can't imagine any circumstances where Ukraine would be better off with the mob of western funded football hooligans and Fascists in power having nukes - or in which Russia would have let these western "N"GOs play freely in a country that would have been so much more essential to Russian security than the present Ukraine is.
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