There are a lot of ways to get rich off of making correct predictions, but if you want to get rich off being wrong about the near future, be a pundit. Nobody ever cares how many times you've been wrong in the past. People just like hearing you make gutsy predictions. They'll never call you to account for them.
For example, NYT op-edster Tom Friedman announced to Chris Matthews on TV on 5/11/06 that in regard to Iraq:
"Well, I think that we're going to find out, Chris, in the next year to six months—probably sooner—whether a decent outcome is possible there, and I think we're going to have to just let this play out."
Sound pretty sensible and persuasive, huh?
The only problem is that Friedman said back in 2003:
"The next six months in Iraq—which will determine the prospects for democracy-building there—are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time." (New York Times, 11/30/03)
Well, actually, that's not the only problem.
See, Friedman has said basically the same thing about the next six months or so being crucial in Iraq a dozen other times in between these two statements.
Leon Hadar has got the goods on him here.
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
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