November 6, 2012

Exit poll demographics for Florida and Ohio

Exit polls for individual states are being put up on CNN, so here's Florida, which Obama is leading slightly (a lead that has grown as the night has gone on, which bodes ill for Romney in the Electoral College).

You'll notice that gender is usually first up, while marital status seldoms makes the first screen, which canalizes much of subsequent thinking about demographics of the vote.

Here's Ohio's demographics, which the exit poll calls for Obama, although the actual vote count started with a big lead for Obama, which has been narrowing as the night goes on. Here's race in Ohio:

Vote by Race
  • OTHER / NA
  • White:79%
  • 42%
  • 57%
  • 1%
  • African-american:15%
  • 96%
  • 4%
  • N/A
  • Latino:3%
  • 56%
  • 40%
  • 4%
  • Asian:1%
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • Other:1%
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A


Matra said...

According to that link a grand total of 5% of Florida voters said foreign policy was the most important issue facing the country. Good thing the conservative media spent all that time and energy on Benghazi and Israel!

Matthew said...

At what point do GOP leaders and consultants acually admit that invasion-scale immigration was a Bad Idea? Do they, ever?

I'm torn up a little by this election, but not too much. Romney never proved himself to be vigorously, genuinely conservative on the issues which mattered to me, and much of the rest of the GOP leadership is even worse.

This is actually four disapointing elections in a row for the GOP. They should have done better in the Senate than they did in 2010, but the grassroots, having complete and justifiable distrust of the establishment, chose some whackos for the nominees.

Sometime soon this party needs to sit down and sing a little Kumbaya and figure out how to rebuild a party they've completely effed up.

Anonymous said...

Matthew said:

"At what point do GOP leaders and consultants acually admit that invasion-scale immigration was a Bad Idea? Do they, ever?"

I wish. But you know they won't. They'll just say that Romney didn't pander hard enough.

In the end, I doubt this result will matter much. The various agendas will still carry on.

Anonymous said...

Obama pretty much carpet bombed my home state of Ohio since June and with exclusively negative ads. Every ad portrayed Romney as Scrooge McDuck ready to stick it to the working man. That crap still has a lot of traction in this state. It wasn't until around the Olympics in August that I saw any Romney ads at all and Obama ads still outnumbered them 3 or 4-1 even then. Romney allowed Obama to negatively define him all summer, that meant even the bounce he got from the first debate merely got him back into the race instead of pulling him in front. In fact, I didn't even see a non negative ad from Obama until maybe 3-4 weeks ago, and it was filled with vague platitudes such as creating a million new manufacturing jobs, from building solar panels, wind turbines, and electric cars I guess.

Matthew said...

Besides changing demographics, do you know what also probably helps the Dems more than Republicans, long-term? The growing ability of GOTV efforts to get out the vote: cell phones, Facebook, easy-to-obtain absentee ballots, etc.

In the past the participation gap favored the GOP, as the lazy, shiftless and uninformed - who disproportionately skew Dem - would never have voted. Increasingly you can get more and more of them to the polls. The GOP has to face this, plus a population that it getting darker, less likely to be married, and is ever more dependent on welfare or a government job.

We have to win the whites in the North. There is no other way.