November 4, 2008

Exit Polls

Here's the national exit poll via CNN (in all these, first column Obama, second McCain, third Misc.)

By the way, somebody should make a copy of it as it stands now because in a few hours CNN will come along and change all the exit poll splits to make them reflect the actual vote splits.

Vote by Race
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
White (75%)
43%
55%
2%


African-American (13%)
96%
4%
N/A


Latino (8%)
67%
31%
2%


Asian (2%)
63%
33%
4%


Other (3%)
66%
31%
3%



A Republican can't win with just 55% of the white vote. Bush got 58% in 2004 and won, but only 54% and lost the popular vote in 2000. And the bar keeps inching up every four years.

And here's the famous Gender Gap, which CNN lists first out of all demographic measures:

Vote by Sex
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
Male (47%)
49%
49%
2%


Female (53%)
55%
43%
2%



And here's the not so famous Marriage Gap:

Vote by Marital Status
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
Married (66%)
46%
52%
2%


Unmarried (34%)
65%
33%
2%



So, Obama did only six points better among women than among men, but he did 19 points better among singles than among marrieds.

In contrast, in 2004's exit poll, Kerry did 7 points better among women and 17 points better among singles.

Thumbing through the demographics casually, nothing looks terribly surprising, just a broad shift to the left versus 2004, just as 2004 saw a widespread shift to the right versus 2000. Of course, some of the black vote breakdowns by state are pretty funny, with North Korean-like 98-2 ratios.

For example, here's New York:

Vote by Race
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
White (71%)
52%
46%
2%


African-American (17%)
100%
0%
N/A



Take that, Enver Hoxha!

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

25 comments:

Reg Cæsar said...

Enquiring minds want to know: will Obama beat Samuel J Tilden?

He got 50.97% of the individual votes cast from all states. No Democrat other than FDR and LBJ has topped that mark since 1876.

1876 was the first election in which voters in every state voted for presidential electors. (Before that, legislatures sometimes made the choice.) So it was the first election in which you could cobble variously defined and regulated state electorates together into a single "popular vote". (Not that anyone did, at the time...)

If he can't beat Tilden, who lost, what kind of a mandate does he have?

non de guerre said...

You mean only 2% of Americans overall voted for independent/3rd party candidates, in a year when we had a pretty good variety of such candidates and public disgust with the two establishment parties was probably at an all time high?

God, Americans are stupid...

Anonymous said...

steve, you should post the demographics in support of proposition 8 in CA and email it to Andrew Sullivan.

Anonymous said...

Actually Steve, check out the race data for New York:

Race - Obama - McCain - Other
White - 52 - 46 - 2
Black - 100 - 0 - 0

Take that Mississippi!

Anonymous said...

I strongly suspect the 2-4% of blacks who claimed to be voting for McCain were having a joke on their undoubtedly white interviewers.

Ronduck said...

Vote breakdown by religion:

74-22 Jews link

50-28 Atheists & Agnostics link

50-34 Latino Protestants PDF
*In 2004 Bush carried 63% of the Latino Protestant vote, this a major reversion to the mean.

49-41 White Catholics link

49-45 Mainline Protestants link

25-68 Evangelicals link link

The Barna Research Group did its' own polling defining Evangelical in strict terms, instead of allowing respondents to self-identify. The BRG poll results are somewhat different from other poll data and are thus noted but not included in the data. link link

Ronduck said...

Reg Cæsar said...

If he can't beat Tilden, who lost, what kind of a mandate does he have?

He'll have whatever mandate the media gives him.

I have to give the Left credit, they certainly worked their asses off to achieve this. McCain on the other hand was a placeholder candidate who showed how many Whites are willing to vote for a Republican in the absence of issues. My cat Snert, my couch or maybe even my 1980 Datsun could have served the same purpose as McCain served in this election.

We're fuc*ed.

Headache, do you have any suggestions for someone going through this?

Captain Jack Aubrey said...

You mean only 2% of Americans overall voted for independent/3rd party candidates, in a year when we had a pretty good variety of such candidates and public disgust with the two establishment parties was probably at an all time high? God, Americans are stupid...

Indeed. This country is finished, finito, kaput. Any plan you have to make it better should start with very modest assumptions about where we are. Take Utah, for example. A year or so ago our overwhlemingly Republican state legislature finally passed a tuition voucher bill. This was a very modest effort ($500 annually) to give people the right to decide how their tax dollars would be used to educate their children. In an overwhelmingly Republican state where Rpeublicans didn't suffer too many losses, 3-4 of its supporters (depending on tonight's outcome) have been defeated - specifically because of their support for the bill. 3 were actually beaten at the GOP convention.

So what were voters saying? "How dare you give me the right to send my kid to the school I want!"

Stupid indeed.

And those racist, redneck Wetsern Pennsylvanians sent good old John Murtha back to Congress, too.

F---in' idiots.

green mamba said...

I strongly suspect the 2-4% of blacks who claimed to be voting for McCain were having a joke on their undoubtedly white interviewers.

I'm not sure about whether they were "having a joke" but it's hard for me to imagine black support for McCain being more than 0.5 percent, if that. Who are these blacks supposedly voting for McCain?

A quick anecdote: Today while buying groceries I overheard a black man patiently explaining to two disappointed black female employees that Barack wouldn't actually become president until January 20. The girls were unpleasantly surprised; they wanted him to be president right away.

Anonymous said...

Whew! Thank goodness for those post-racial black voters eh?

Reg Cæsar said...

Who are these blacks supposedly voting for McCain? --Green Mamba

Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, Elizabeth Wright, Deroy Murdock, and about a dozen others. Oh, and Jeremiah Wright, and anyone else "under the bus"...

Today while buying groceries I overheard a black man...

Everyone, when you run into blacks celebrating too smugly, take the chance to remind them that by voting to legalize illegals (and invite more legals), Obama betrayed them just as surely as McCain and Biden (and enate/uterine Obama) did whites.

Then as them why we can understand that, but they can't.

Today's heroes for blacks should be Tom Tancredo and Michael Chertoff.

Anonymous said...

Steve,
This is why you're the best commentator period. BTW, I lost my bet with my husband. It was only $10 as I'm not *that* crazy! I had gotten the black vote correct although I figured them to be 14-15% of the electorate with Hispanics less, and whites around 79% getting 59-60%. Getting the white vote wrong was everything, of course. I'm curious now what the white vote was back in the eighties, specifically, what was it in the landslide of '84?

On another note, I'm not bullish on America. Demography is destiny. We've decided to sell off most of our stocks to become debt-free tonight/tomorrow and use our extra income to fix up our house to sell and move to a more hospitable part of the country, and hopefully, to Quebec (my husband's ancestral home) in the future.

Truth said...

"Indeed. This country is finished, finito, kaput."

Well it is if you sit on your ass in front of the computer complaining about it instead of doing something.

gordon-bennett said...

Can you imagine a black majority population (such as in zimbabwe or south africa) ever electing a white minority presidential candidate? Even when it's their only chance to stop their precipitate decline into savagery from the civilisation which was handed over to them?

Anonymous said...

I think it is going to be extremely interesting these next four years watching the Black community. My guess is that they are going to be hyper defensive of Obama (including Michelle) while trying to project the outward appearance of not doing it for racial reasons. We will probably get a heaping helping of the media downplaying the racial solidarity among blacks while making sure nothing similar happens among whites.

Steve Sailer said...

Jamaicans elected the white Lebanese record producer Edward Seaga in the 1980s, and the various Manleys before and after that. My vague impression is that the Manleys are a dynasty turning from white to black over the generations, but I'm unsure on that.

Botswana's new President has a white mother (pretty similar story to Obama, except the couple stuck together and moved to Botswana).

Captain Jack Aubrey said...

I think it is going to be extremely interesting these next four years watching the Black community. My guess is that they are going to be hyper defensive of Obama (including Michelle) while trying to project the outward appearance of not doing it for racial reasons.

Black people in general are magical people. Far too many of them believe that when they wake up on January 20th their lives will magically become something extraordinary. No need to study, no need to pay the bills, no need to do the hard work in life. Perhaps they'll be happier and less inclined to blame the white man for all that ails them - that would be the logical conclusion - but I doubt it. I wouldn't be shocked if the black condition got worse over the next 4-8 years because of Obama.

tommy shanks said...

All your reasons for Obama's win are wrong. Tom Friedman of the NY Times has the answer:

>>there also may have been something of a “Buffett effect” that countered the supposed “Bradley effect”... The Buffett effect was just the opposite. It was white conservatives telling the guys in the men’s grill at the country club that they were voting for John McCain, but then quietly going into the booth and voting for Obama, even though they knew it would mean higher taxes.
http://tinyurl.com/5u2s8q

You know, all those white conservatives who hang out at the country club and lie to each other. What planet is Friedman living on?

It's a good thing he didn't bother backing up his thesis with pesky statistics, or anything.

headache said...

Ronduck,
There is life after Obama. In South Africa most blacks now concede Apartheid was better for them. Ah, after 250000 murders we had to find this out. The black elite have raped the country, sometimes literally, and everything which worked before is broken or tainted. But the Boers are either emigrated or living on as best they can.

Nothing beats a man who has control of his life and family and knows what he is doing. And who does not depend on cheap labour! I am investing in the house of my parents even though the ANC proposes a law allowing confiscation of property such as in Zimbabwe. Why? Because my family lived here for 250 years. That means I am more South African than 50% of the blacks living here. I will register the house in a private fund in Germany so when they confiscate it I can go to the EU courts. So I am living in Germany where my forebears came from 250 years ago to escape Affirmative Action (which is oppressive in South Africa), but I have not given up my roots in South Africa.

I am happy you people are now feeling the pain South Africans went through 15 years ago. And you are still the majority. Wait until you only make out 12%! The thing with "Black empowerment" is that blacks are maxed out way over their ability in many countries, thanks to liberal largess. But eventually their gross incompetence comes to show. As it did in Zimbabwe (who is still singing uncle Bob's praises?), or in South Africa (even liberals are shying away from the ANC, only to keep the false memory of Mandela alive). It will be the same for Obama.

headache said...

Steve sed:
"Botswana's new President has a white mother (pretty similar story to Obama, except the couple stuck together and moved to Botswana)."

Seretse Kama is the only opponent of Mugabe. Contrasting to Obama he is identifying with his white side more than with his African side. Maybe that's because he lives in Africa and sees the dysfunction of his brothas.

Anyway, Kama is serious about his opposition to Mugabe. The other blacks, including the mulatto's in Angola and Mozambique could not care less. I have not heard a peep from Obama about Mugabe. Mugabe alone must be such a huge embarrassment for black people.

Then there are the syndicates in South Africa, the gangs in the Congo (who killed 4 mio. so far), Sudan etc. Writing this from South Africa where I am visiting my folks, it seems so strange that Obama would want to identify with blacks. Blacks here are dreaming of going to the EU or the US, anything to get away from their culture and the effects thereof.

Morgan said...

So 100% of New York's black vote went to Obama? I wonder how Pastor Manning will react!

Ronduck said...

Here is a fixed link to the poll on Hispanic Protestants- PDF

DYork said...

What is the gender breakdown within the White vote?

Single White females put Obama in the White House.

Appropriate considering who birthed and raised him.

headache said...

Ronduck,
Yea, I remember the pain I felt when Mandela came in. All that civilization built up over 350 years down the drain. The great army, the legal system, the control of crime, scientific approach to governance, good schools and unis, all gone. Water affairs, infrastructure, health, schooling, all now in the hands of black ideologues with primitive ideas about things. White neighborhoods trashed. Clean streets filled with hawkers, the list is endless. When you drive through the major cities they look like Nigeria. Highrises full of filth, washing hanging from the windows, broken windows, sidewalks full of trash and dust. Our former Lutheran church in town has now been taken over by blacks. The beautiful organ in there which sounded out Bach and other German music will no longer be used. They just have their African choir music. What a pity. When I go there there is an ache in my heart, but I know its time to move on.

But we moved on and eventually the pain subsided. Blacks have taken over but failed to improve things. They could not even reach the old standard. Their supporters amongst whites have either emigrated or gone silent. Most liberals are tired of having to perpetually compensate for the failings of the ANC. Even hardened liberal such as my parent's neighbors - who were stauch supporters of black power - have given up on the ANC. My life changed, but different to what Mandela maybe wanted. I still think of him as a glorified second-rate tribal chief who would have ended life in prison if he were not a black in a white-run country. I have achieved vastly more education than I would have in South Africa, whilst Mandela and is ilk f...d up a good country. And all this after only 15 years. But yes, the old country is gone for good, and it was not good to lose it. It really hurt badly. In that sense, to paraphrase another demigod US prez, "I feel your pain".

Ronduck said...

Steve wouldn't publish my response, so I'll just say thanks Headache.