August 10, 2013

Pew: "Integration without blacks in NYC neighborhoods"

From the Pew Research Center:
Sign of things to come? Integration without blacks in New York City neighborhoods 
New York City has always been a trendsetter for the rest of the country in art, fashion and cuisine. Now two researchers have documented a new demographic trend in the Big Apple that they suggest may be a glimpse of the future for other large American cities. 
Researchers Ronald J.O. Flores and Arun Peter Lobo call it integration without blacks. In the past 40 years they found nearly a three-fold increase in the share of integrated New York City neighborhoods with a mix of whites, Hispanics and Asians but few, if any, blacks. 
At the same time, the share of integrated neighborhoods in which blacks comprised at least 10% of the residents fell by about a third, Flores and Lobo reported in the latest Journal of Urban Affairs. 
The result, they wrote, is an “emerging black/non-black color line, where Asians and Hispanics are increasingly aligned with whites while distancing themselves from blacks.” 
Using Census data, the researchers analyzed shifts in integration patterns in 2,111 New York City census tracts between 1970 and 2010. This period marked an explosive period of demographic change in the city: During that time the share of whites-nearly two-thirds of the population in 1970-fell by about half to roughly 33%, while the proportion of blacks remained relatively stable at about 23%. At the same time, the city’s Hispanic population doubled to 28% and the Asian share grew more than six fold to 13%. 
The researchers used census tracts as proxies for neighborhoods. They defined an integrated neighborhood as one in which whites comprised more than 10% but less than 70% of all residents while some mix of blacks, Asians or Hispanics comprised the remainder. 
Within these integrated neighborhoods, they identified those that were “integrated, with blacks” And those that were “integrated, without blacks.” In order to be defined as neighborhoods that were integrated with blacks, African Americans had to make up at least 10% of the residents in the census tracts. Those labeled integrated without blacks contained fewer than 10% blacks. 
Since 1970, Flores and Lobo found that the proportion of “integrated, without blacks” neighborhoods nearly tripled from 13% to 37% in 2010. At the same time, the share of “integrated, with blacks” areas fell from 22.4% to 14.9%. The biggest changes were in neighborhoods where minorities made up at least 70% of the residents, which grew dramatically, and those where whites were the clear majority, which plummeted as a share of all census tracts.

This pattern is hardly new in some places outside of New York: it was common in Southern California a generation ago. But it is interesting to see it playing out in New York City. 

My guess is that in a half century or so, African-Americans will look back in wonder from their current residences in Section 8 podunkvilles at the fact that a century before they heavily inhabited the great liberal cities of America, that they used to live in large numbers on Manhattan, in the nation's capital, a few miles from the beach in L.A., along the lakefront in Chicago, near downtown Boston, and even in San Francisco! It will seem strange in 2063 that back in the early 21st Century, the synonym for black music and black radio stations was "urban."

Here's an alternative possibility, however: if crime can be brought down even further in the Surveillance State, maybe African-American neighborhoods will become more attractive to white gentrifiers, even if they can't push all the blacks out.

By the way the top graph showing the steady rise in NYC's Asian population reminds me of something a New York reader told me awhile ago. She says that while today it seems inevitable that Jews like her will more or less dominate New York City politics forever, she looks around and sees an ever-growing number of Chinese competently inhabiting New York. Maybe, she says, in a half century New York will be a Chinese-dominated city?

85 comments:

Rick said...

It could just be as simple as non-black minorities filling the holes left by departing whites. IOW, blacks are basically living where they always have, but the places that have lost their white majority are due to an outflow of whites, an influx of non-blacks, or both.

I have no way of knowing if this is the case or not, but it is a possible explanation.

Anonymous said...

"if crime can be brought down even further in the Surveillance State, maybe African-American neighborhoods will become more attractive to white gentrifiers, even if they can't push all the blacks out."

During my time working in black underclass areas it seemed to me (anecdotal) that the percentage of psychos was going up at a steady rate. This didn't necessarily relate directly to crime stats because of things like increased incarceration over the same period but the base cause i.e. percentage of psychos, seemed to be going up.

(nb by psycho i simply mean people with violent traits of various kinds.)

After thinking about it for a long time i've come to the conclusion that the mechanism for this is that street gangs act as a joint reproductive enterprise.

In the urban blight if there's say a youth gang 24-strong in a project / estate and four of them rape a girl the family has to take into account potential retaliation from the other 20 if they report the attack. The same applies to all crime in those kind of neighborhoods but the threat of rape or other sexually related violence lies behind this particular point.

The gang members can attack and rob people on impulse more or less with complete impunity because it's a group enterprise.

The effect this has on reproduction is that any girl who catchs the eye of any of the gang members...

(which if say the gang is made up of 1/6 of the young males on the project / estate then the target females might be the top 1/3 of girls by attractiveness on the same project / estate)

...has very little choice in who she has sex with because if she doesn't become the girlfriend of one or more of the gang members then she's likely to be raped by all of them.

Because of the group nature of the gang enterprise it doesn't matter if any particular individual gets killed or incarcerated. As long as there's enough left to maintain minimum fear levels then the most violent males *as a group* create a situation where they can father a disproportionate number of the next generation - hence increasing psychoness.

(Assuming i didn't imagine it.)

As nothing is done about the crime in those kind of neighborhoods unless there's an actual body (and sometimes not even then) - mainly because the gang culture makes it very difficult to do anything about it - i used to think the war on drugs was at least some kind of useful proxy as the violent street gang culture and the drug gang culture overlap somewhat but i'm increasingly doubtful.

I think the key factor may be the gang structure itself.

If so then once a gang culture is established if you don't deal with it then the result will be an increasing percentage of psychos with each generation.

They Are Tricking Blacks said...

Just take a look at the DC area for a glimpse into the future.

In our future cities, blacks will largely occupy the inner ring suburbs(e.g. Prince George's County, MD) while younger whites and Asians along with some Mestizos live in the urban areas and the outer 'burbs.

Whites (along with some Asians and a few Mestizos) are moving out to the exurbs like Loudoun County in Virginia and Howard County in Maryland in large numbers.

Meanwhile blacks largely view the new urban core as culturally alien and expensive and the exurbs as unfriendly and racist toward them and would not even dream of moving to those areas.

Other than that, blacks can be dumped in (i.e., encouraged to move to) southern cities like Atlanta, Birmingham, AL, and Memphis, TN in large numbers.

They Are Tricking Blacks said...

Another point:

Liberal whites are leading blacks into thinking that they are better off living amongst blacks (and AWAY from them). Notice how WHITE liberals are screaming to shut down any talk about black crime??? I believe that it is because they don't want to encourage any discussion on this topic otherwise blacks may desire to live in non-black neighborhoods in larger numbers.

NO! We must tell them that their neighborhoods are great and in fact you are better off living in black communities (away from us!)

Anonymous said...

Of course a lot of Hispanics, especially in New York, have African ancestry (Puerto Ricans and Dominicans).

bluegrass said...

"Maybe, she says, in a half century New York will be a Chinese-dominated city?"

In a Half Century, they'll need a Snake Plissken to run that place. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckvDo2JHB7o

Ed said...

This is nationwide. Most immigrants even Black ones seek to avoid neighborhoods dominated by Black Americans.

The Washington Post had a feature a few years ago about how the "Black" county in the area, Prince George's was becoming increasingly segregated while Northern Virginia was becoming diversity central. Asians and to a lesser degree Hispanics don't want their kids going to crappy schools or getting beat up by unruly Black kids.

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-30/local/35279567_1_segregation-neighborhoods-whites

sunbeam said...

I've posted a theory related to this several times, but I guess people think it is dumb, or just aren't interested.

Jews and Asians seem to favor the same path to success.

I.E. the academic one. As such they are direct competitors for elite college admission.

So far Asians don't seem to be much interested in law, politics, or any of the media or entertainment type of things.

They do seem to want to be in finance, medicine, and the sciences. And I think they will be increasingly in competition with Jews for niches in finance and medicine. Jews seem like they aren't really interested in science or engineering anymore.

You have to face facts. There really isn't much money to be made in a career in the sciences. The real money is in finance in this version of America. Medicine is always a good choice if you want to make some money, and get some status to go with it.

It's my understanding that there is a high rate of intermarriage between Jews and Asians (as much as Jews intermarry with anyone). So far Asians appear to be content with assimilation, as opposed to keeping themselves a separate minority.

I think the possibility is there that this could change. There's not much doubt that they are successful and will continue to be very successful in this country. The rise of China will also accrue some leverage to Chinese people at least, IMHO.

Just saying that the possibility exists that Asians could come to consider themselves a more gifted minority, a la our favorite one. It's not like there isn't anything to support this notion.

If they do, I think they will come into direct competition with Jews, since they seem to use the same channels for advancement. Elite colleges, nepotism, networking.

In a head to head competition, I don't know how it plays out. From all I've read Jews have more base intelligence than Asians.

But compared to Asians they are lazy Mofos.

Then too life in the "Big Gulp" (metaphor for US, not NYC) is enough to dull anyone's edge. Asians are already consumerist as hell.

Take a while to play out, and it might never happen, at least as far as viewing themselves as a group apart.

But I do think they are going to go into direct competition with Jews for niches, and probably beat them out in some.

A wildcard is East Asia. If China and the rest become the economic center of the world I think this is an advantage to US Asians. My guess is the Chinese will view Jews as just another roundeye. There won't be much any outsider is going to do with that system.

Anonymous said...

Flores and Lobo(?) Maybe the hot racial/ethnic war playing out in Compton right now, and soon due in your major metropolitan area, gentle reader, has a propaganda component too. I have a potential slogan: "Hispanic immigrants - a safe way for progressives to discard hypocrisy and live in SAFE integrated neighborhoods!" If I were a thoughtful black leader - and I know this is an oxymoron - I'd start now, even though it may be too late, forming a coalition of politicians united around the common cause of secure borders and a rational immigration policy.

Anonymous said...

Maybe, she says, in a half century New York will be a Chinese-dominated city?
why? Why do people say this is inevitable? cut off welfare and the chinese stop coming -most of them are benefits scammers

BTW the fastest growing population in NYC are hassdic jews- and muslims - and both will gang up to bring back modesty laws for women (and if law doesn't work they will find other means) and anti-christian policies - which NYC is already full of thanks to the Jewish elite.

rightsaidfred said...

In order to be defined as neighborhoods that were integrated with blacks, African Americans had to make up at least 10% of the residents...

I'm wondering about this cut-off. It seems to be a tipping point, where the character of the neighborhood becomes a little too vibrant.

Also: The biggest changes were in neighborhoods where minorities made up at least 70% of the residents

We are going to need a new word for "minority" pretty soon, something that will make the debate a little more stark.

Anonymous said...

Do Jews dominate New York City politics, though? Aside from Bloomberg, you have to go back to Koch in the mid-80s to see a Jewish mayor.

Whoever will win the current election won't be a Jew. It's either Quinn(the conventional candidate who pretends being gay in 2013 in New York is radical somehow), de Blasio(the white leftist who's politics is more in sync with the city's minorities but who won't get the vote because they're racist) or Thompson(a black establishment favourite and close to Wall St).

Secondly, I think it's pretty clear now that Chinese-Americans dont make much of a splash at all in politics. I see much more activity from Indian-Americans.

Overall, the temperament of Indian-Americans is... well the temperament of brown people.

The way the world is setup is that the least assertive(East Asians) also have the highest IQ.

The most assertive/aggressive/self-confident, also have the lowest IQ(blacks).

Jews were/are an exception to this, since while they're aren't violent physically they're well-known to be prone to white collar crime and they're much more emotionally aggressive/assertive/self-confident than either white gentiles and especially East Asians.

Indians as a group does not have a high IQ, but the Indians in America, the top 1% in cognitive terms, do have a high IQ and they have the same behaviour patterns of their lower-IQ brothers and sisters back home, i.e. more assertive etc.

Still, the question is if Indian-Americans have the poltical bug? Israel needs much more protection than India does. And in these times it's often more alluring to go into high tech rather than real estate or robbing pension accounts on Wall St(both Jewish favourites) and then pour that money into political candidates.

Jews are a tiny fraction of the world's population, while Indians are obviously a huge number, the same is true with Chinese, so there's a less of an internal urgency there.

I think we're just going to see Jews fade in political power. 8/10 Jewish kids under 18 in NYC are ultra-Orthodox. For these people, even learning math can be forbidden at times.

Anonymous said...

This isn't really surprising.

A few facts:
- In NYC, a black has typically longer/harsher sentences than in the Deep South
- A higher share of the population in NYC of blacks are also imprisoned compared to the Deep South.

As always: watch what the white liberals do, not what they say. The ironic thing is that the new target of the "colored left" are precisely white liberals, who hold far more power than white conservatives(and the colored left won't be fooled by the white liberals trying to stave off pressure by saying the Kochs run the world, which they don't).

Anonymous said...

There are no integrated neighborhoods. There are just neighborhoods in the process of going from all of one thing to all of another.

Anonymous said...

This is actually not as new as Pew likes to pretend.
The progressice EPI institute has similarly pored over "integration" data and came to the same conclusion.

According to them, white-black residential integration has now fallen off the peak in the late 1970s, early 1980s and is now stronger than it was in the 1940s. Note: I am not talking about workplace segregation or relationships(friendships, romantic involvements etc) but de facto residential segregation.

Now, there's a lot less white-majority neighbourhoods but this is because of Asians and increasingly better-off hispanics(often just other white people from high-achieveing European families based in Latin America) move into those neighbourhoods.

Here's the relevant blogpost:
http://www.epi.org/publication/racial-segregation-continues-intensifies/

I should add that one of the effects of the Great Recession was to wipe out a lot of blacks out the housing market, not just newcomers, but people who did have stable middle class jobs.

What matters is not income but wealth. Whites in America has 20x the wealth of blacks and this is based on old numbers.

Obama's attempts to save black America via Mel Watts is too little too late, and he's filibustered by Republicans anyway.

The "eminent domain" strategy won't fly nationwide because the Wall St banks are too powerful inside the Democratic party.

People said the future of America is Brazil, but it isn't. It's New York City.

America's immigration is increasingly geared towards high-skill in a way it hasn't for decades, perhaps ever(before 1965 it was just geared towards race).

Today, 60% of new immigrants are from Asia, and the share is only rising.
The "piecemeal approach" will get SV what it wants, and it doesn't want cheap hispanics. The agriculture lobby is far weaker today than it used to be. Today the concerns are that of SV and that means, essentially, high-skilled Asians.

The rest of the nation, you lock up or keep under surveillance, as crime plummets. You'll never have crime gangs like Mexico simply because the police in America is now so militarized that it's an own army in it's own sense, with all the drones, heat-sensors and now the NSA's all-seeing eye too.

The doomsters were wrong, multiculturalism didn't lead to chaos, but velvet fist of tyranny, mostly directed towards black/brown minorities and increasingly safer streets decade by decade.

Anonymous said...

It's possible that chinese will dominate the politics in this country as well, not just because of the success of american chinese. Asia is rising rapidly, and the center of the world is shifting to the asian pacific region. Just think about it that in 30 or even 20 years when china becomes the largest economy in the world, most of the business will be coming from there. People used to say similar things about japan and the soviet in the past. Remember, China has 1.3 billion very smart and capable people (while japan has about 128 million). If each Chinese can do at least a third as well as the each japanese does, the result will be unimaginable...

Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/10/us/10iht-currents10.html?_r=0


New York's 'greatness' was sustained only by massive bailouts at the expense of the rest of the nation.

anony-mouse said...

1/ Chinese will not dominate politics outside of China since being good at politics means having high levels of social skills and extroversion. IQ helps, but only up to a point.

2/ Fewer Jews will become candidates over time since the ultra-Orthodox will make up a larger and larger percentage of the Jewish population and the ultra-Orthodox outside of Israel have an aversion to being political candidates. They will however be involved in politics.

Anonymous said...

The result, they wrote, is an “emerging black/non-black color line, where Asians and Hispanics are increasingly aligned with whites while distancing themselves from blacks.

CDC natality data tells a different story as far as hispanics are concerned. In 2010, hispanic women in NYC were 35% more likely to have children with black fathers than white ones. US-born hispanic mothers were 90% more likely. This doesn't suggest an emerging color line between blacks and hispanics. If anything, it suggests greater social closeness between hispanics and blacks than hispanics and whites.

bjubbs said...

Steve's mentioned that Mexicans lack good leadership. of course blacks have charismatic leaders, but the problem is they always get into these ethical problems. not fenty (but he has no political future) but even obama had his tony rezko, not that anybody bothered to notice. but it seems an iron rule of US politics that any talented black politician will take money, if offered. that's why so few rise to national office, eg one black senator. people like bob mcdonell in va fall into the same trap, but this website is obviously a form of backdoor payment. nobody believes this is a legit business. and the new elite is fine with lots of stuff, but obvious payola is not ok. you have to be out of office before you get paid. but booker couldn't wait.

PA said...

if crime can be brought down even further in the Surveillance State, maybe African-American neighborhoods will become more attractive to white gentrifiers, even if they can't push all the blacks out.

Crime is not the primary problem in most neighborhoods outside of downright ghettos. The problem with blacks is primarily noise. Both vocal noise, and electronic.

That, and a myriad small acts of antisocial passive-aggressive behavior (littering, loitering, glaring) that fly under the radar of the law but make areas uninhabitable to non-blacks.

Liz said...

Integration without Negroes is still displacement of my people. To say that Hispanics and Orientals are better than Negroes, thus acceptable, is just plain wrong,

Anonymous said...

Steve, what's your take on New York after Bloomberg? It seems as though Bloomberg has continued positive trends Guiliani started that make NYC liveable. It doesn't seem as though Bloomberg has a clear successor as mayor who is likely to keep that going. Are we back to the Dinkins era, albeit with less obvious stridency? Or are the other possible tensions?

None of the present candidates seem impressive, so city government might return to the default position of earlier years that is not conducive to business or a livable city.

ben tillman said...

Researchers Ronald J.O. Flores and Arun Peter Lobo call it integration without blacks. In the past 40 years they found nearly a three-fold increase in the share of integrated New York City neighborhoods with a mix of whites, Hispanics and Asians but few, if any, blacks.

***

The result, they wrote, is an “emerging black/non-black color line, where Asians and Hispanics are increasingly aligned with whites while distancing themselves from blacks.”


As Cavalli-Sforza has noted, "The most important difference in the human gene pool is clearly that between Africans and non-Africans...."

By the way, that Strom Thurmond/napkin line is a classic.

Whitehall said...

One place where liberal whites and blacks are integrated is in congressional and legislative districts.

Barbara Boxer's first congressional district, after moving up from the Marin board of supervisors, was created just for her.

It included the "old money" core of Marin, the cities of Ross and Kentfield, and 40 miles away, Hunter's Point, San Francisco's black ghetto. It also picked up Alcatraz with its zero voters.

BTW, in my forty years as an engineer, I think I've known 2 Jewish engineers. Nice guys but a bit out of place.

Anonymous said...

The surveillance state won't do anything about street crime. But boy howdy can it be used against the bourgeoisie for wetlands violations, speeding, not recycling, or possessing a rifle with a pistol grip.

Observing from the Sidelines said...

This kind of integration has also been happening in parts of Chicago (Bridgeport, Wicker Park & Bucktown, and Logan Square).

Veracitor said...

Blade Runner, Dude.

ironrailsironweights said...

Unfortunately the Pew news item does not list the actual neighborhoods surveyed and the original article is firewalled. I would be most interested in knowing the specific neighborhoods.

My best guess is that many of the integrated-without-blacks neighborhoods are in western Queens: Long Island City,* Astoria, Sunnyside, Maspeth, Middle Village, and Jackson Heights. Also parts of lower Manhattan, below about 14th Street, and possibly some of the trendier Brooklyn areas such as Park Slope and Windsor Terrace.

* = L.I.C. has an enormous, mostly black housing project, but the use of census tracts probably means it was defined as its own neighborhood

Peter

Anonymous said...

I live in the Maryland exurbs, and one complicating factor to everything is our "affordable housing" laws -- you can't build a new development unless you have "affordable housing" right next to it. I.E., if you build McMansions, you have to build a bunch of townhouses or condos or apartments right next to it, which attract a lot of blacks, even Section 8 renters. This makes them less attractive to whites, and it makes older housing that is more economically segregated more attractive. A nice house is much less desirable when Trayvon and company can wander through at night to buy their Skittles and watermelon Arizona drinks, not to mention and attend the same schools.

jody said...

east asians are not very political so ashkenazi jews will dominate new york city as long as they propagate themselves - which they aren't very much. demographic decline will probably cause a slow but steadily receding jewish political control as the vibrant account for a greater and greater share of the democrat machine.

there are a lot of chinese people in new york city, i will agree with that. surprisingly many, if you've never been there. you don't expect it. it's an east coast city, 2000 miles away from the west coast, and asians have never been heavily or prominently associated with new york city or any of it's lore, history, or culture that it projects out into the rest of the US. they appear in basically no media representations of NYC.

by the way steve, china just ended it's 1 child policy and has moved to a 2 child policy. as i predicted. so expect a chinese population jump, not an explosion, but definitely a jump, that will certainly get them out of a big jam they were heading into.

any time china faces that demographic, repopulation, 'GDP not going up fast enough' type of jam on the horizon, they can just step back their population control law one notch.

it won't work indefinitely but it will get them out of jams for the next several decades, no doubt. eventually they'll let people have as many kids as they want and the rural chinese will be banging out 3 kids per family. then china will be, demographically, in a tug of war, like the competing forces of inward crushing gravity and outward exploding radiation in a star, with the rural chinese having 3 or 4 kids and the urban chinese have 1 or 0.

jody said...

"Remember, China has 1.3 billion very smart and capable people (while japan has about 128 million). If each Chinese can do at least a third as well as the each japanese does, the result will be unimaginable..."

except they never do, as i've pointed out many times.

the astronomical gap between what IQ predicts the han will do, and what the han actually do, is easily the greatest conundrum in intelligence research today.

if china were an NFL team, at the combine every player on the 53 man roster would have done 50 reps on the bench, jumped 40 inches on the vertical, and sprinted 40 yards in 4.1 seconds. then they would go out and compile a 1-15 record against the other nations. they'd miss the playoffs every year, while having the highest payroll in the league by a mile.

there is a gargantuan canyon between what intelligence testing predicts the chinese can do, and what they actually do. as you note yourself, if the chinese could only do 1/3 as well as the japanese person for person...

and yet, year after year, not only do they not match japanese performance with a 10 to 1 population advantage, they don't even come close. if you look at what comes out of each country, it's more like a 10 to 1 advantage for the japanese, for an effective advantage of like 100 to 1.

eah said...

...in a half century New York will be a Chinese-dominated city?

Oops, should be Chinese-American, right? An oversight I guess.

It'll be the east coast bookend to San Francisco then.

Wonder how Korean War vets feel about that.

Maxwell said...

There is an important difference in this happening in NYC vs. Southern Cali, though- its a sign that the rulers of NYC who play such a big role in everything else have at some level acknowledged (even if not outwardly) that their ideology about multiculturalism, esp. black multiculturalism, is wrong. This could mean they would be more receptive to evaluating a number of other related failed ideas, like Head Start, Affirmative Action, Disparate Impact, etc.

Night Ranger said...

If NYC under Chinese leadership turns out like Singapore and HK under Chinese leadership, then bring it on. And the founding stock of Chinese for all 3 places are essentially the same Cantonese/South Chinese people who did not go through Maoism/Communism.

They don't put up with the BS nonsense excuses that whites seem to be stuck under. Drug dealers, criminals and thieves would soon find that the risks/consequences far outweigh the rewards there.

The problem for us would be their blatant favoritism for other Chinese, though. Its no secret that Asians are among the most race-biased people on the planet, maybe second only to blacks.

Nexin said...

"A wildcard is East Asia. If China and the rest become the economic center of the world I think this is an advantage to US Asians. My guess is the Chinese will view Jews as just another roundeye. There won't be much any outsider is going to do with that system."

Unless some sort of under-the-table arrangement is made between the two. It probably would not be explicit, but to even mention the possibility of it publicly would result in the same impact on your career and life as if you said the n-word or publicly ridiculed a homo in 2013. Or shot a harmless, innocent 17 year old 6 foot black kid who had you pinned and was beating the hell out of you.

kurt9 said...

I live in a multi-racial neighborhood with few blacks. We're about 30% Asian and 15% Hispanic.

Big Bill said...

So the rest of us white folks are "racist" and "segregated" because we do not live cheek-by-jowl with blacks, yet New York Jews, white bobos, Indians and Chinee are "integrated" with no blacks in sight?

I suppose it was inevitable. There is no way the New American Elite--white, Jewish, Chinese, Indian and Korean--was ever going to live around or go to school with black folks, so they had to rejigger the definition of "segregation" and "integration" to get themselves off the hook.

I say we go back to calling Irish, Italians, English and Germans different "races" and declare our neighborhoods to be "integrated" as well.

Maybe it will get the social engineers at HUD off our backs. Hell, if New York can purge black folks and call themselves "integrated" so can we, right? Right?

Crawfurdmuir said...

One of the interesting differences between U.S. population patterns and those in almost every other part of the world is that here, slums are most frequently found in the inner cities, while the affluent live in suburbs - whereas elsewhere, the affluent have maintained their presence in urban centers, and slums, called banlieues, favelas, or whatever word the local language has for them, are located on the outskirts.

This pattern is now developing in the U.S. as poor blacks are gentrified out of inner-city neighborhoods. It occurred first in Manhattan, and now appears to be happening in Washington, D.C. Could it be that as the U.S. becomes more like an European social democracy, it will come to have a pattern of slum housing more like that of Europe?

Anonymous said...

"A wildcard is East Asia. If China and the rest become the economic center of the world I think this is an advantage to US Asians. My guess is the Chinese will view Jews as just another roundeye. There won't be much any outsider is going to do with that system." - the real wild card is what all of the roundeyes are going to think of them in 50 years.

"If each Chinese can do at least a third as well as the each japanese does, the result will be unimaginable..." - There simply aren't the energy resources for them to accomplish that. the much more likely scenario is that China will see her population shrink, and then if they can do so, join the 1st world.

Zoink said...

All of these "rise of the Chinese" posts miss the point that China is aging fast due to one-child policy and the rapid urbanization of its population making family formation unaffordable.

China has a very low birth rate that is dropping every year. Hong Kong and Singapore have birthrates under 1.0, Taiwan is under 1.2, and mainland China's birthrate is even worse than it looks because of sex-selection abortion, but is around 1.4 or 1.5.

Chinese immigration to the USA isn't that high anymore, and these days is 90%+ legal.

Chinese fertility dropped from very high to very low faster than almost anywhere else, so the effects of the drop right now are all positive: more investment in human capital for the current small generation of people 18-35 who work in new industries, and a large prime-age workforce age 35-55.

In about 5 years, China's somewhat delayed post-WWII baby boomers will start aging out of the work-force, and in about 10 years after that the children of the first one-child generation will start entering the workforce, which is less than half the size of the late baby-boomers who age out.

By 2040 China will have more than 100 million people over age 80, and a married 2nd generation "one-child" couple could have as many as 8 aged grandparents to take care of but no cousins or aunts/uncles to help.

Anonymous said...

interesting use of the word "dominant"

i mean aren't we all supposed to be equal neighbors just getting along all diversity and splendor and happyness?

gubbler of the church of reformed chechenism said...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-33816_162-57597967/climate-change-may-increase-violence-new-study-finds/

Climate change makes people more violent? Check the weather reports again on the eve of WWII, I guess.

Btw, 'climate change' is mostly euphemism for hotter temperature, but I suppose the term 'hotter temperature' is best avoided since one thinks of hot sunny Africa. If indeed hotter temperature leads to more violence, then it must explain why blacks who evolved in hot Africa became so violent and aggressive.

It's only logical: IF hotter temperature makes people more violent and if such conditions favor the survival of angry/violent people over gentle/passive people, THEN hotter regions will have more dangerous people than cooler/colder regions do. Since blacks evolved in hot Africa over 100,000s of yrs, that must explain why the are so violent.
So, how are Liberals gonna backtrack from such logic?

peterike said...

Thing about the Chinese is that while the immigrants stay very Chinese, their children Americanize like crazy. It's hard to find a group of young SWPLs around here (NY) without at least a few Asians in the mix. As mentioned above, they are super consumerist and neck-deep in status striving. Also, they are doctrinaire political Progressives (after all, they went to good colleges and learned to love homos and hate the wrong kind of white people).

Americanized Indian dudes seem to do ok hanging with white guys, but you see fewer Indian women around. Maybe because they are so uncommonly ugly (unlike the pretty Chinese girls), or maybe the parents just hold them back more. Though an attractive, stylish Indian woman is not rare, by any means. Indian women also seem to have appalling, guido-style fashion taste, whereas the American Chinese are a lot more hip.

The upshot is that while we don't see a lot of Chinese in politics, show business, etc., I expect this is going to change very quickly as the American-born generation of elite college Chinese are only just now hitting the streets in large numbers.

As for blacks, they will continue to be pushed to the margins in the Deep Blue cities. As also mentioned above, the dysgenic effects on the black population over the past 50 years have been cataclysmic. Think of it, in the 1940s this was what a couple of blacks going to work looked like. In Baltimore.

http://www.shorpy.com/node/15781

Anonymous said...

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/vanderbilt-football-players-collared-raping-unconscious-woman-college-dorm-photo-brutal-attack-article-1.1423145#ixzz2ba9v6F3U

It must due to climate change.

Anonymous said...

http://news.yahoo.com/missouri-school-transfer-ruling-opens-old-wounds-071804741.html

Why urban liberals love libertarian policies on education. By invoking 'school choice', just shut down all the bad city schools and ship black students to suburban schools of their 'choice'.

Daniel said...

>>New York's 'greatness' was sustained only by massive bailouts at the expense of the rest of the nation.

I agree 100%.

Anonymous said...

you need to write about this

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2387630/Racist-shop-girl-said-I-afford-24-000-handbag-says-billionaire-Oprah-Winfrey.html

Veracitor said...

Vision of integration without blacks: http://www.notenoughshaders.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Blade-Runner-Cryengine-2-01.jpg

Anonymous said...

"New York's 'greatness' was sustained only by massive bailouts at the expense of the rest of the nation."

"I agree 100%."

Though Jewish power is credited to Jewish successes, it also owes to Jewish control of the Fed and the finance sector that allows Jews to eat a lot of failures and still carry on. Power isn’t just about building on success but weathering the failures. A boxer doesn’t win just by punching the opponent but the ability to absorb the punches from the opponent.
This is why the USSR defeated Nazi Germany. Germany had the better starting team off the bench, but USSR had tremendous depth in terms of men, raw material, geography, organization and networks. Thus, its margin of error could be much wider than that of Germany. Thus, great power isn’t only about doing things right — winning the successes — but about the ability to absorb the costs of failure, and USSR made tremendous mistakes in the war with Germany, but it had the means to absorb the failures and still fight back to victory.

Why does Jewish Hollywood have such lasting power even though it made so many flops and bombs? It’s because Jews have great power in finance, and therefore, even when Jews mess up with some investments, they can always be guaranteed with fresh investments from their allies who control the money supply.
Why did Wall Street Jews in 2008 not go out of business? Their control of government ensured that the Fed would be pumping lots of new dough into Wall Street banksters. So, Jews win when they win and even win when they lose. If you control finance, your side has tremendous depth, a huge margin of error it can indulge in, and the financial failure of 2008 was as big a failure as one could possibly imagine. But NY Jews grew richer and fatter while rest of America grew poorer. Also, as Jews control the media, they get to control the politics of public outrage. In Jew-controlled America, ‘white Hispanic’ George Zimmerman is more deserving of our collective fury — even though all he did was use his gun to defend his life from a black thug — than Michael Bloomberg of the stop-and-frisk policy and the billionaire sharks who run Wall Street and stole from us. In LOST IN AMERICA, Albert Brooks cannot get his ‘nest egg’ back, but Wall Streets who gambled and reaped huge profits during the dotcom and housing bubbles and then sank the economy never had to worry about losing their shirts when the bubbles popped since their allies in government and media provided them with great ‘depth’. Thus, Jews win on their successes and on their failures. Even when powerful Jews mess up, they are covered and bailed out because they have powerful friends in finance, government, and media. Jews run this nation like a mafia but pretend to be the moral arbiters of all of us.

So, Jewish power is not just about Jewish success and meritocracy. It is about Jewish 'depth' that allows a tremendous margin of error. It is this bailoutocracy serving as a safety net that allows Jews to gamble more. When they win, the privatize the profits, when the lose, they socialize the costs.

No wonder NY is so 'great'.

Anonymous said...

"All of these "rise of the Chinese" posts miss the point that China is aging fast..."

So are all of its competitors. With insignificant exceptions (small religious cults), all high-IQ populations have low fertility. This issue is irrelevant to the question of who will dominate the world. If at least one potential claimant to top dog status (Japan, Korea, Europe, Russia, the smart parts of the US) had high fertility, this issue would have been relevant. But none do, so it's not.

If at some point in the future whites constitute 0.5% of the world's population, NE Asians 0.5% and the sun people 99%, then the entirety of the world's politics, economics, science, tech and high-brow culture will still revolve around conflicts among the aforementioned 1%.

"...a married 2nd generation "one-child" couple could have as many as 8 aged grandparents to take care of but no cousins or aunts/uncles to help."

The same will be true among Germans, Italians, Japanese, upper-middle class Americans and everyone else who's ever mattered.

Anonymous said...

China will not become an economic power unless it becomes genuinely committed to environmental regulation and consumer safety regulations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/04/sunday-review/life-in-a-toxic-country.html?hp&_r=1&

Gloria

Maguro said...

Hey, Anonymous 1:21 PM, that business in St Louis has nothing to do with libertarian school choice schemes. It's old fashioned court-ordered busing, just like Boston in the 70s.

Cail Corishev said...

By 2040 China will have more than 100 million people over age 80

Don't you suppose they'll start euthanizing the elderly them long before then? That's the obvious solution, and I don't see why a society that puts baby girls outside to die of exposure would balk at implementing a more permanent form of "retirement" for those who have outlived their productive years.

Anonymous said...

No mention of American Indians. I guess they don't count anymore for New Yorkers.

Anonymous said...

the astronomical gap between what IQ predicts the han will do, and what the han actually do, is easily the greatest conundrum in intelligence research today.

It's not a conundrum, it's pretty obvious to anyone who has experience with both countries. The big factor that separates the Japanese from the Chinese (and the rest of Asia) is their honesty and forthrightness. The Chinese are notably corrupt. Check out the map on that page, or click here. The Japanese are like brothers to Northern and Western Europeans in terms of honesty and civic-mindedness.

That map is another great one for an iSteve post. Singapore and Hong Kong are notable exceptions as well. There is very large and obvious correlation between corruption and ethnicity. The sort of virtues that make a nation non-corrupt also make that nation economically and militarily effective. No nation is ever going to be great when their citizens are so busy sabotaging each other's efforts for personal and family gain.

These virtues also make for a very liveable country. This sort of thing is why the corrupt or criminally prone peoples of the world are scrambling over one another to live in our countries. With our honesty and chivalry, internally we are like fat dodos waddling around just waiting to be hit over the head, plucked and roasted. By contrast, the only way we could realistically want to immigrate to the sea of corrupt countries around the world is to invade and ethnic cleanse. (Or immigrate and set up small enclaves with well defended borders that expand over time.)

If only this sort of map had been around earlier in history. It shows which nationalities you might happily accept as immigrants and more importantly, who you most certainly do not want to import.

Charlesz Martel said...

Why assume rape? Many women actively seek out psychos to breed with . The projects are basically breeding farms for drug dealer's girlfriends. They get them at 15-16, give 'em the whirl, knock 'em up in 6-9 months, and on to the next while Whitey pays the bills. What's not to like?

hadley said...

"hass[i]dic jews- and muslims [] both will gang up to bring back modesty laws"

The Jews throw rocks and dirty diapers, break out car windows and yell "Whore!" at women on the street.

They don't care about anything outside the confines of their own neighborhoods.

Whatever money they get they need for welfare lifestyles so they won't donate to politicians.

They don't want their men leaving the neighborhood to since they would be tempted by gentile whores.

Read the Jewish Israeli newspapers.

Muslims likewise. They have "modesty patrols" in England like the Jews in Israel.

And like the Jewish modesty patrols they police their own neighborhoods, slapping around homosexuals, yelling at infidel women, posting signs commanding visitors to behave modestly, etc.

Luton, Tower Hamlets, Birmingham, Jerusalem, Mea Shearim, Iran, it's the same. Patrols by local modesty gangs but nothing national or politically organized.

Anonymous said...

All I know is when I look at that chart, I see whites as the big loser. We were a significant majority of the population and now we are an ever shrinking minority. Asians emerge as the winner, though through no credit of their own. They simply came here as some dumb, or treasonous, whites chose to let them in.

Anonymous said...

Integration should mean Blacks. New Yorkers are trying to redefine the term integration so they can claim they aren't racists that don't like Black people.

Anonymous said...

"Section 8 podunkvilles"

Here's the plan Steve. Extend Section 8 to foreign countries. If you can get New York Blacks to move to Appalachia with Section 8, why not Hmong moving to Laos?

Anonymous said...

To follow up on the comment on Hassids and the Ultra-Orthodox: the Jewish population in NYC is already rising, largely thanks to the growth of Hassids and Ultra-Orthodox. The proportion of the Hassid/Ultra-Orthodox is rising rapidly among NYC Jews, and must be near to or at the point where it 1) raises the proportion of Jews among NYC whites; and 2) raises the proportion of whites among NYC inhabitants.

This has some interesting consequences. For example, recently I was looking at a list of baby names in NYC: Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians tend largely to choose standard American names; there was far more deviation from standard American naming patterns among Whites, due to the prominence of names such as Shmuel. Judging by names, NYC culturally integrates all groups--except Hassids/ultra-Orthodox.

Now, in effect this is also raising the number of poor Jews--recreating the old conditions of the Polish Pale. The Hassids and the Ultra-Orthodox are and will be voting as poor people desiring government handouts as much as possible. When people talk about "Jewish voting values", this is likely the wave of the future.

This is all heavily NYC-local (with similar effects upstate)--not a national trend at all. The country as a whole may become more like Mexico City or Shanghai, but NYC will become more like Tsarist Warsaw. It's not even impossible that NYC will become majority white again--but a good half of that majority would likely be Hassid/ultra-Orthodox.

David Davenport said...

People used to say similar things about japan and the soviet in the past.

Correct. Back in the 1980's and into the '90's, pundits were predicting that Japan was going to become the #1 techno-industrial power. Eaxample: Looking at the Sun.

Things didn't turn out that way, although we still see lots of recent vintage Japanese brand cars on the road.

Anonymous said...

Old. News.

See this article from almost exactly 15 years ago:

The Beige and the Black

To quote from this article:

"Thus, the old duality between whites and nonwhites is finally breaking down. But don't cheer just yet. For what seems to be emerging in the United States is a new dichotomy between blacks and nonblacks. Increasingly, whites, Asians and Hispanics are creating a broad community from which black Americans may be excluded."

Harry Baldwin said...

Do Jews dominate New York City politics, though? Aside from Bloomberg, you have to go back to Koch in the mid-80s to see a Jewish mayor.

Koch was mayor from 1978 - 1989, and Bloomberg has been mayor since 2002. Before Koch the Jewish Abe Beame had a four-year term. So in the last 40 years, New York has had 12 without a Jewish mayor. That's not Jewish enough for you?

jody said...

"It's not a conundrum"

i have considered this, and other factors. the total lack of respect for intellectual property, for instance. but these factors simply cannot explain the gaping achievement chasm between what we predict and what we observe with respect to the chinese. maybe those factors can account for some of the discrepancy but certainly not all of it.

we're talking about centuries worth of almost nothing coming out of the most populous nation on earth. with supposedly a mean national IQ of 100. or higher?

you mean to tell me at no time in the last couple centuries did a few guys in china get together and were the first to work out something of great import to the rest of the world, because lack of honesty and civic mindedness prevented them? or even 1 guy acting alone in private, hiding all his work from every other chinese guy out there who was just lurking in the shadows, waiting to steal it? the "I have nothing to gain by inventing anything" rationale explains the FULL gap between predicted intellectual output and observed output?

the defense industry alone is enough to blow this hypothesis out of the water. china seeks to dominate the planet. where are all their defense projects? don't they want to be as far ahead of everybody else as the US actually is? don't they want defense technology so much more advanced that the other nations are afraid and fear them, so much more advanced that it's basically magic when their stuff shows up on the battlefield. it's just POOF, you're dead. and the survivors are astounded and terrified when the chinese orbital satellite death rays or flying fusion powered aircraft carriers or robotic, railgun firing, levitating tanks flood the battlefied? why doesn't the chinese navy control earth's oceans and dictate the petroleum shipping lanes?

were chinese men not motivated by the prospect of being invaded by japan in 1940? is resisting invasion and subjugation by a hostile, capable, technologically advanced neighbor still not enough impetus to develop new, superior technology? that's how it always worked in europe. not so in china apparently. losing a military arms race seems to be what china does despite the incredible level of motivation they must feel when facing japan.

jody said...

korea produced nothing of note in pretty much it's entire history...until after 1965 or so, when it started to do just that. now it's an important global contributor in a few fields. the chinese should be embarrassed by how much the koreans outproduce them, despite outnumbering them 25 to 1.

intelligence research posits a a 20:1 china-UK genius advantage, a 16:1 china-germany genius advantage, a 10:1 china-japan genius advantage, a 4:1 china-US genius advantage. so, WHERE ARE ALL THE CHINESE GENIUSES? WHAT ARE THEY SPENDING THEIR TIME DOING? it must be TERRIBLY important. far more important than cutting edge work in any field of science the other dumb nations are working on.

maybe the han are all tricking us. maybe china is actually so advanced they have opened a gateway to another side of the universe and are secretly communicating with and trading with highly advanced aliens, like in 'They Live'. and any day now, they're gonna take over the world. or, maybe they already have taken over the world, and without rowdy roddy piper and his special sunglasses, we can't tell who is an alien agent of the chinese global takeover and who is not.

of the serious nations, germany has fallen the furthest behind in science, since the government decided in 1990 that economic resuscitation and re-integration of east germany was more important to their immediate future than continuing to fund an intellectual arms race with the UK and japan. they let financial committment to gymnasium (what they call their academic high schools) and university research money decline while diverting a lot more money to industry. the result is they now control europe economically, GDP per capita in east germany went from $10,000 in 1990 to $22,000 in 2010, they're in the middle of energiewende (which is stupid), but they don't do as much science as they used to. still, in the last 10 years, german scientsists have:

cured HIV
proven for sure that there is a black hole at the center of the milky way galaxy
analyzed stuxnet and determined what it did and where it was developed
developed a biological tissue factory that makes human skin from scratch
built a skin gun that heals second and third degree burns in 1 week
created a screening test for alzheimer's that is 95% accurate and can detect the beginning of the disorder 15 years ahead of initial symptoms
pioneered the use of stem cell rehabilitation for professional athletes with career threatening nerve damage

i'm sure to be missing some things. but this is german science at it's most lethargic and weakest in 100 years.

what did the 1.3 billion han in china do in that time period? as i always ask in conclusion when this topic comes up, WHERE IS ALL THEIR STUFF?

Anonymous said...

Not happening in Oakland, which is undergoing hipster white flight as its level of crime renders it ungentrifiable:


http://oaklandunseen.tumblr.com/post/40100999532/jack-white-flight

So gentrification has its limits.

Cail Corishev said...

you mean to tell me at no time in the last couple centuries did a few guys in china get together and were the first to work out something of great import to the rest of the world, because lack of honesty and civic mindedness prevented them? or even 1 guy acting alone in private, hiding all his work from every other chinese guy out there who was just lurking in the shadows, waiting to steal it? the "I have nothing to gain by inventing anything" rationale explains the FULL gap between predicted intellectual output and observed output?

Exactly. This is the same thing I've been pointing out with regard to computer programming, since we're told how we're being passed up in that area. As soon as computers were put in the proximity of white Americans and Europeans, they couldn't be stopped from creating things. The book Hackers talks about how students at MIT learned to pick locks so they could get to the DARPA-provided computers after hours and experiment with them. The same thing happened at offices and schools across the Western world: put boys and men together with computers and you start getting games, new languages, faster algorithms, and all sorts of new stuff showing up all over the place. Not out of profit motive or patriotism or anything that obvious, but because it seemed cool. Their reason recalls the one about why the explorer climbed the mountain: "because it was there." They do it because it's there and they can.

This hasn't happened since computers have been put in proximity with Asians, with a few exceptions that prove the rule in Japan -- unless, like you suggest, they're sending all their creative output to another dimension. With the number of Asians who are working in code factories by day, we should be seeing little games, utilities, and a million other individual projects showing up online, and they're just not. When you encounter Asian programmers online, they're doing their jobs, not creating something new on their coffee breaks. For whatever reason, there's not the same creative explosion there that you get when you hand Western whites a new tool for creating stuff.

Anonymous said...

sunbeam
"Jews and Asians seem to favor the same path to success.

I.E. the academic one. As such they are direct competitors for elite college admission.

So far Asians don't seem to be much interested in law, politics, or any of the media or entertainment type of things."

I think you need to think of South Asians and East Asians seperately.

I think your basic idea is correct. Jews think their big advantage over european whites is IQ but actually it's IQ combined with higher levels of ethnic nepotism than european whites - but only european whites.

If South Asians and East Asians operate on the same basis of IQ + ethnic nepotism (at least relative to european whites) they should out-compete Jews by weight of numbers but i think it's likely to be in different arenas - with East Asians predominating in technical areas and South Asians in the more verbal areas - not exclusively, just in proportion.

.

"The book Hackers talks about how students at MIT learned to pick locks so they could get to the DARPA-provided computers after hours and experiment with them. The same thing happened at offices and schools across the Western world: put boys and men together with computers and you start getting games, new languages, faster algorithms, and all sorts of new stuff showing up all over the place. Not out of profit motive or patriotism or anything that obvious, but because it seemed cool. Their reason recalls the one about why the explorer climbed the mountain: "because it was there." They do it because it's there and they can."

I think IQ is only one component of innovation.

Another is aggression - not too much - just enough to not care if other people believe your idea is dumb if they can't prove it's dumb.

European whites are more recently barbarian.

If correct then whichever out of Chinese, Korean or Japanese is most recently barbarian (as they were a Japanese colony i assume Koreans?) should produce the most innovation per head and individuals with some - not too much - relatively recent hill-tribe ancestry (within 200-300 years say) should disproportionately figure among the geniuses.

Just a guess.

Anonymous said...

"There are no integrated neighborhoods. There are just neighborhoods in the process of going from all of one thing to all of another."

Correct.

.

"white-black residential integration has now fallen off the peak in the late 1970s, early 1980s and is now stronger than it was in the 1940s."

That's the white collar / blue collar split. Now the white bluecollar population has been mostly cleansed from the cities there's an income firewall preventing the cleansing of the white whitecollar population - or at least the conservative part of it.

Hence the HUD database and section 8.

.

"New Yorkers are trying to redefine the term integration so they can claim they aren't racists that don't like Black people."

Correct. The liberal elite of New York, LA and DC want to get rid of the black population without people noticing (and while attacking everyone else for racism at the same time.)

.

"its a sign that the rulers of NYC who play such a big role in everything else have at some level acknowledged...that their ideology about multiculturalism, esp. black multiculturalism, is wrong. This could mean they would be more receptive to evaluating a number of other related failed ideas, like Head Start, Affirmative Action, Disparate Impact, etc."

The Trayvon Martin case shows how that will work. Those kind of policies will change where the media live but *only* where they live because the media won't report it if it's happening where they live. At the same time they'll attack *more* over those same issues in the areas they don't live especially conservative white suburbs to deflect attention from what they're doing.

For example the amount of media attention given to the Trayvon Martin case and profiling compared with the use of profiling in New York to cleanse black people from Manhattan.

.

"New York's 'greatness' was sustained only by massive bailouts at the expense of the rest of the nation."

Correct. The Wall St. banks are a vampire. They harm everyone but themselves.

Part of the reason is given above. When they make money they keep it and when they lose they bribe some politicians to bail them out. They can't lose.

Anonymous said...

"The doomsters were wrong, multiculturalism didn't lead to chaos, but velvet fist of tyranny"

The doomsters were right. They said multi-culturalism would lead to either chaos or a police state.

It's more likely to be both with a police state where the elite live and chaos where they don't.

.

"Crime is not the primary problem in most neighborhoods outside of downright ghettos."

Yeah it is. It might not be the most common problem - as you say noise is more or less constant - but one 12 year old being raped on the way to school is half a block of white flight within six months.

It doesn't take much violent crime to drive people with kids out of a neighborhood (if they can afford to) leaving the poorest and those aged 40+.

.

@Charles Martelz

"Why assume rape?"

I'm not saying rape is the direct source of the reproductive advantage. I'm saying gang domination of a neighborhood and the resulting ability of gang members to attack people with impunity creates the reproductive advantage through fear of the consequences.

.

"No mention of American Indians. I guess they don't count anymore for New Yorkers."

One of the consequences of european whites allowing themselves to be displaced will be the new population won't feel bound by the treaties if a conflict of interest arises.

Anonymous said...

Jody, you make some good points. I was talking in terms of GDP, you are making a wider argument about inventions or even development (e.g. like the Japanese).

There are several possible reasons I can propose for why the Chinese have not had output equivalent to their IQ.

1). The IQ measures are incorrect. Evidence for this? Do they test representatively across the country? Do they cheat?

2) The IQ standard deviation is smaller than other countries, meaning less geniuses are produced. Evidence?

3) The IQ results reached are a result of excellence at memorizing and a natural high work ethic, that do not also apply to improving technology.

4) There are other genetic or cultural factors that act to stunt their progress. Maybe they are genetically predisposed to copying rather than developing. Maybe the drive to be corrupt is that factor. One should consider that South Korea is not as corrupt as China - about midway between Japan and China.

I don't know what the reason is, but you do have a point.


were chinese men not motivated by the prospect of being invaded by japan in 1940? is resisting invasion and subjugation by a hostile, capable, technologically advanced neighbor still not enough impetus to develop new, superior technology? that's how it always worked in europe. not so in china apparently. losing a military arms race seems to be what china does despite the incredible level of motivation they must feel when facing japan.


Supposedly the corruption of the KMT was a reason for why the Communists won there. Perhaps even with the threat of the Japanese invasion, the corruption was a factor. And look at what happened with the British and their running of opium into China. The Emperor tried to stop the consumption of opium, but it had no effect. They couldn't control their own country.

It also must be quite difficult to control and unite, considering that large areas of the country have different dialects. Even under the one leader, I can't imagine that say, all of the Germanic countries could be particularly united like you seem to expect that the Chinese should be. It's a bit like the EU is now, or the Axis perhaps, with Germany vs Italy.

But you would rightly point out that even with the EU being a bit of a hopeless project, at least many component nations are doing superlatively, like Germany of course.

Michael Ryan said...

AfroTurf?

Anonymous said...

"
By 2040 China will have more than 100 million people over age 80, and a married 2nd generation "one-child" couple could have as many as 8 aed grandparents to take care of but no cousins or aunts/uncles to help."



The main difference is that they aren't actually going to take care of those aging grandparents and great grandparents. I mean, they aren't going to have medicare that will give them hip and knee replacements and keep them alive on ventilators in persistent vegetative state and give them tons of treatments. They will be warehoused in low budget, low service nursing homes with a few nurses aids and will not live that long because the Chinese are not going to channel all their medical resources to the elderly. It ain't a democracy over there. Those old folks aren't going to be able to vote their kids into paying for them like old folks here do.

Anonymous said...

-but a good half of that majority would likely be Hassid/ultra-Orthodox.
even the Forward recently had an article about their dishonesty - hard to even call it that- they consider it religious duty to cheat gentiles - and i am not exaggerating.
They don't just look for handouts they are involved in massive fraud - and the pillars of their community are the ones that do it.

The Forward article implied it was more like a kingpin and his minions societal structure.

They have their own amublances, which won't pick up gentiles - and in fact will leave them to die (could you imagine white Christians allowed to do this in nyc? incidentally they got the cross removed from NYC ambulances ) they have their own publish housing (jewish only) their own police, their own public transit.. they got a bike lane closed in williamsburg - the only group that has been able to stop that.

They WILL bring back modesty laws when they get enough power, as i mentioned, they will team up with muslims who they are very psychologically comfortable with.

They have even become ballsy enough to bring back nitel night.

of course, nothing will change them. .

Anonymous said...

"Think of it, in the 1940s this was what a couple of blacks going to work looked like. In Baltimore.
"

The dress of most whites at school or work, prior to 1970 is amazing too. But actually, looking at that picture, the woman doesn't look any better dressed than a lot of women nowadays, perhaps because she's wearing slacks, and probably works in a factory setting.

Anonymous said...

recreating the old conditions of the Polish Pale

It was the Russian Pale, established when Russia annexed a part of Poland with a large Jewish population. Prior to that, the region had not been referred to in that manner. Late Tsarist Jewish Warsaw wasn't all ultra-Orthodox and hasidim, and back then even those guys worked. They were too poor not to work, and there was no welfare state. Ultra-Orthodox Judaism has also become more religiously reactionary and insulated over the past 50 years.

Anonymous said...

The fundamental problem with modern life, all over the world, is that most countries are very corrupt places where no one is willing to put the good of the country above personal and family ambition. The elites of those countries know how much better it is in Western Euro-derived countries. If we let the all the elites of Turkey, Sri Lanka, Botswana etc. move here they would do so in a minute. Japan is a racist society and unlike some who post here I don't like racism. But overt ethno-nationalism might be the only way to keep what we've got going.

Gloria

sunbeam said...

Anonymous wrote:

"It was the Russian Pale, established when Russia annexed a part of Poland with a large Jewish population. Prior to that, the region had not been referred to in that manner. Late Tsarist Jewish Warsaw wasn't all ultra-Orthodox and hasidim, and back then even those guys worked. They were too poor not to work, and there was no welfare state. Ultra-Orthodox Judaism has also become more religiously reactionary and insulated over the past 50 years."

Those ultra-Orthodox as you call them come across as a very strange bunch.

I've seen groups in the US that act similarly (fundamentalists) in some ways, but I'm also struck by behavioral similarities to what I've read of Muslims in Europe with modesty patrols and whatnot.

I also wonder exactly what the IQ of that group is. Are they as intelligent as the other Ashkenazim Jews? It's probably a prejudice I've picked up through our culture, but I've always assumed an intelligent individual would find that kind of environment too stifling to live in, and escape at the earliest opportunity.

I know that some great minds have been highly religious, but it just doesn't seem to work that way anymore.

ben tillman said...

CDC natality data tells a different story as far as hispanics are concerned. In 2010, hispanic women in NYC were 35% more likely to have children with black fathers than white ones. US-born hispanic mothers were 90% more likely. This doesn't suggest an emerging color line between blacks and hispanics.

Most Puerto Ricans in New York have African ancestry. They are not the Hispanics the rest of us are talking about.

Anonymous said...

"...I've always assumed an intelligent individual would find that kind of environment too stifling to live in, and escape at the earliest opportunity."

It is just the right philosophy for a small population to survive. It encourages procreation. It prohibits intermarriage. It maintains memes. Cohesion gives them power.

Most of them probably have their doubts, but what's to gain by probing them. Atheists who see life as an absurdity tend not to be very procreative. Atheism, no matter how rational it may be, is probably not very adaptive.

Anonymous said...

Interesting self-segregation. The resulting community is one in which I would feel comfortable.

It somehow brought to mind Cavali Sforza's remarkable studies reported in "History and Geography of Human Genes'.

That study of the human genome reported [as best I remember using close to their words] that humanity can be divided into two groups--sub-Saharan blacks in one group and everyone else in the other group.

They went on to report that blacks had about twice the genetic distance from Australian Aborigines that the latter had from mainland Asians. That distance, Australian to Asian was twice the genetic distance from Asians to Europeans.

Of course, no effort was made to claim intellectual or physical attributes because of these distances. The measure was only of genetic distance itself.

Interesting, though, that people in parts of New York are separating themselves along the same lines.

Like many of us these days, I have lived among whites, Asians, Hispanics and blacks in varying degrees of concentration. Blacks are the only group I would make a positive effort to avoid in the future--an inclination formed from experience rather than scientific reports.

Anonymous said...

"Most Puerto Ricans in New York have African ancestry. They are not the Hispanics the rest of us are talking about."

Some African ancestry, but most are not what you might call black.

Anonymous said...

Most Puerto Ricans in New York have African
ancestry. They are not the Hispanics the rest of us
are talking about.


The Pew study and NYT article are specifically about New York hispanics.